Russia’s Budget Outlook: Foreign Exchange Tax, Revenues, and Policy Signals

Exporters are projected to contribute roughly 50 billion rubles each month to the national budget in the fourth quarter of this year and again next year through a newly introduced foreign exchange tax. The levy was established by government decree issued on October 1, and this figure comes from an explanatory note accompanying the draft 2024 federal budget as reported by Interfax. (Source: Interfax)

According to the publication, total budget revenues for the fourth quarter of 2023 and for 2024 are forecast at 755 billion rubles. Of this amount, about 151.6 billion rubles are expected to be collected in 2023, while the remaining 604.25 billion rubles are anticipated for 2024. The report underscores that the foreign exchange tax is the instrument responsible for these projected inflows during the specified periods. (Source: Interfax)

The agency notes that the duty was introduced during this same window, signaling a deliberate shift in the fiscal framework within that timeframe. (Source: Interfax)

Earlier remarks from Maxim Reshetnikov, the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, suggested that the Russian economy would maintain stability in the coming year. He pointed to underlying resilience in the economy despite evolving external and internal pressures. (Source: Interfax)

Previously, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov indicated that the federal budget deficit was expected to narrow to the 2 percent of GDP level in 2023. He also affirmed that a responsible approach to financing would be sustained in the ensuing years, with all obligations and priorities planned to be met without fail. (Source: Interfax)

Additionally, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation had increased the key rate to 13 percent during this period, an action viewed by authorities as a response to macroeconomic conditions and inflationary pressures. The move was part of broader monetary policy measures aimed at reinforcing financial stability. (Source: Interfax)

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