PiS Holds the Top Spot in Local Assembly Polls
A recent public opinion survey conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska shows that the ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS), leads in voter intentions for provincial council elections. The poll indicates PiS with 29.8% support among respondents, edging out the Civic Coalition (KO) at 28.1% and the Confederation at 8.5%. These figures reflect the first-choice preferences of a randomized sample drawn for the provincial assembly race.
PiS Maintains a Narrow Lead
In the questionnaire, respondents were asked to name the committee or party they would vote for in the provincial assembly elections. The results reveal PiS as the leading option with 29.8% of respondents indicating they would cast a vote for the party. The Civic Coalition trails closely at 28.1%. The distribution shows a tight race among the two leading blocs, underscoring the competitive landscape of regional politics.
According to Wirtualna Polska, these findings were published on Thursday, highlighting the persistent strength of PiS and the competitive challenge posed by KO in the regional contest.
Shifts in Support Shape the Race
Perhaps the most notable development in the latest poll is the rise of the Confederation, which moved into third place with 8.5% support, displacing the Third Way from the podium, which registered 7.9%. The shift suggests that the Confederation has tapped into a segment of voters who previously considered other options, reshaping expectations for the provincial council elections. The publication notes that a week prior, around 13.5% of respondents expressed support for the Third Way, indicating volatility in party preferences as voters reassess alliances and policy priorities.
The survey also looks at other blocs: the Left received 7.8% support, nonpartisan local government candidates attracted 3.7%, and a portion of respondents, 11%, had not yet decided who they would vote for. These figures illustrate a broad spectrum of preferences and a considerable portion of undecided voters as the election approaches.
Voter Turnout Projections
Projected turnout for the local elections set for April 7 stood at 53.4% among those polled. About 45.4% indicated they did not plan to vote, while 1.2% remained undecided. These turnout expectations accompany the preference data, offering a fuller picture of how engagement and party choice may interact on election day.
The United Surveys project surveyed 1,000 respondents using CATI and CAWI methods from March 8 to 10, 2024. The sampling approach aimed to capture a cross-section of voters and to reflect regional variations in political alignment across the provinces.
Related coverage discusses the evolving dynamics between PiS and KO in provincial council polling, with other parties like PSL and Polska 2050 showing notable but smaller levels of backing. Analysts are observing whether recent coalitions or leadership developments could influence regional voting patterns in the weeks ahead.
Additionally, political analysts have offered interpretations of the shifts, noting that changes in coalition rhetoric and public sentiment toward new governmental alignments may be contributing to fluctuations in support for the Third Way and other parties.
In sum, the current snapshot indicates a competitive provincial race dominated by PiS and KO, with a growing share for the Confederation and a modest but meaningful presence for smaller parties and undecided voters. The political landscape remains fluid as voters weigh policy priorities, leadership, and the potential impact of local governance on daily life.
Notes: The polling snapshot comes from a United Surveys project conducted for Wirtualna Polska, reflecting the electoral mood ahead of the provincial assembly elections. The figures represent stated voting intention rather than final outcomes and are subject to change as campaigns unfold. Attribution: WP and United Surveys are cited for methodological context and poll results.