“There are many problems for those in power and PiS’s long-term strategy should be to invest with a positive image, because people will be discouraged by the new government and there is a chance that PiS will take over the discouraged. However, this will not last a week, it will not work on the basis of some scuffles, neither before the Sejm nor in the Sejm itself. In the last elections, PiS’s mistake was a negative campaign; it was a mistake to focus mainly on threatening Tusk. We need to build a programmatic, positive and credible image,” says Prof. in an interview with wPolityce.pl. Norbert Maliszewski, former Secretary of State at the Prime Minister’s Chancellery and former head of the Government Analysis Center.
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wPolityce.pl: In the United Surveys survey for Wirtualna Polska, as many as 40.1 percent respondents answered that KO will win the next local elections, and 20.5% said PiS. One member of the PO authorities, quoted by Onet, stated that KO wants to “throw PiS beyond the Vistula line” in the local elections and win subsequent provincial assemblies. Will this KO plan succeed? Can PiS somehow reverse the current unfavorable trend for this party?
Prof. Norbert Maliszewski: This poll is very unfavorable for PiS because the belief in winning, which should take shape during the campaign, is important for undecided voters. This is the so-called bandwagon effect, i.e. if a voter is not interested in politics, he follows the majority, the party that is the strongest. Therefore, it seems that the first basic conclusion is that PiS must reach the level of local governments, where it enjoys significant support. There PiS should show a positive program, for example on the issue of investments that the current government wants to suspend. This is a pro-development program that covers, among other things: nuclear power plants, CPK, strategic investment program, construction of sewage treatment plants. The second problem is that the advantage of PiS has always been credibility. It can be emphasized as much as possible, if only because the current ruling coalition has huge programs with the implementation of the announced 100 specific items. How can the ruling coalition be convinced that it will implement its program at the local government level when it turns out that the slogans that appeared in the national campaign were implemented by no more than 10 percent? There is no increased tax-free amount and other issues that are important for Poland. Next is the selection of target groups. PiS now has a well-mobilized hard-core electorate, because what happens with the takeover of various institutions and legal dualism motivates PiS voters to vote against the current government. However, it is worth thinking about how to reach groups that previously voted for PiS, or for President Andrzej Duda, meaning there is some similarity that they will now support PiS. These groups have been identified for a long time – these are, for example, conservatives from medium-sized cities or wallet-sensitive voters who do not strongly identify with the right, but with PiS programs. It is clear that there are some actions of PiS that are a gem here – there are young candidates with rather centre-right views, such as Tobiasz Bocheński or Łukasz Schreiber, but actions on this issue must be consistent at the national level. .
You mentioned young PiS candidates for mayor, but currently PiS is not in power in any city with more than 100,000 inhabitants. inhabitants. Hoping that a PiS candidate will now succeed in becoming mayor of Warsaw or Bydgoszcz – to say the least – is not very likely.
These are tactical moves. The chances of PiS candidates winning in these cities are small, but it is an investment in the future and an investment in the image of PiS. What PiS needs to do is implement a generational change. We must draw conclusions from the autumn: many politicians with long experience in PiS did not achieve good results in the last elections. Moreover, if there is an image problem of a party, this face must be changed. These young PiS candidates for mayor do not necessarily have to win the elections, but they will certainly freshen the image of PiS. A long-term strategy is important for PiS. There are many unfavorable phenomena for the ruling coalition – for example, there are EU rules that are very difficult for Poland, for example regarding achieving climate goals. There is no peace in this matter, because the fact that President Jarosław Kaczyński is now talking about the resignation of Commissioner Wojciechowski is immediately used, not only by KO and PSL, but also throughout Europe, because not Timmermans, not the creators of the European Greens. Deal and European climate policy are guilty of these unfavorable solutions, only Commissioner Wojciechowski becomes the scapegoat.
However, Janusz Wojciechowski is EU Commissioner for Agriculture, so it is difficult for people not to think that he is partly responsible for EU actions that are perceived to impact farmers.
However, Commissioner Wojciechowski is not the author of the European Green Deal. Farmers protest against solutions related to 4% set-aside. country, related to reducing pesticides, reducing the emission intensity of agriculture and promoting, for example, not eating meat. These are all solutions that are being loudly commented on across the EU, and Commissioner Wojciechowski is not associated with them at all. But coming back to the government’s problems: on the one hand there are these unfavorable EU regulations, on the other hand the lack of implementation of 100 specific details. The next thing is that the migration pact is still under discussion, and there will be tensions in this area too. Therefore, there are many problems for those in power and PiS’s long-term strategy should be to invest with a positive image because people will be discouraged by the new government and there is an opportunity for PiS to win over those who are discouraged about to take. However, this will not last a week, it will not work on the basis of some scuffles, neither before the Sejm nor in the Sejm itself. In the last elections, PiS’s mistake was a negative campaign; it was a mistake to focus mainly on threatening Tusk. We must build a programmatic, positive and credible image. For years this was PiS’s advantage. The local elections will be difficult for PiS, PiS must focus on a long-term strategy, limiting losses and maintaining power in the most important 3-4 voivodeships, because it will certainly not be possible to maintain the current position in 2019 .
You mention PiS’s long-term strategy, so that the actions you mention cannot now bear fruit in the local elections? In your view, at the moment it is only about limiting losses so that PiS does not rule alone in the Podkarpacie Regional Council?
Yes. Current polls show that in almost all provincial assemblies where PiS is currently in power, support is still distributed in a way that allows PiS to fight for victory. The idea is that these 3 to 4 provincial parliaments will still be under PiS control after the elections. PiS’s task for these elections is therefore to stop the slippery slope, that is, the decline in polls, and secondly, to completely change the current strategy, because it is still negative. No conclusions have yet been drawn from what happened in the autumn.
You say that PiS’s strategy is still negative and that no conclusions are drawn. You also mentioned the fighting for the Sejm. Are you referring to the case of Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik in this sentence? PiS has become closely involved in this subject. Do you think this will harm the party?
Not everything is zero and one. There are certain values in PiS that must be preserved, PiS must raise the issue of Maciej Wąsik and Mariusz Kamiński. However, it will be interesting to see how PiS now moves beyond its bubble. He succeeds in this, for example, in the case of CPK, but not in the case of Kamiński and Wąsik. PiS will be able to get out of the bubble if it turns out in July that Poland will have to pay much higher energy bills. In 2015, PiS had a lot of support among young people, but why? Because of Jarosław Kaczyński’s image? No, that was because the youth became discouraged by the government. A similar process will probably take place now, but you need to have a positive, open view. About 60 percent of PiS voters are people with secondary and higher education. The image of PiS must be more complex and interesting, an image that addresses the current problems of these groups. This cannot simply be an image that only interests PiS politicians. PiS politicians are interested in issues related to Kamiński and Wąsik, but young people are obviously not interested. However, I would like to emphasize again that there is no binary here: PiS must defend Kamiński and Wąsik, but this is just one of many actions and in my opinion the main message should be the positive one.
PiS is also deeply involved in criticizing the actions of Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz towards the public media and Adam Bodnar regarding changes in the prosecutor’s office. Do you see this activity as part of a negative campaign unfavorable for PiS, or is highlighting these issues beneficial for Jarosław Kaczyński’s party?
This is one of the lines that need to be implemented and is important for the PiS core electorate. However, this should not be the main message.
Source: wPolityce