“Even if there was no chance [stworzenia rządu i większości sejmowej przez PiS – przyp red.]PiS should not malfunction without making an attempt to deal with the situation. Of course, everything indicates that this is largely a mission doomed to failure, but on the other hand it is necessary to check whether this is the case and not to decide intuitively on the basis of media statements or enthusiastic content of the opposition. . We must face this, try to invite representatives of individual parties to discussions and present our own offers. Even if it was rejected, at least it would hit the air. Public opinion would be aware of what was proposed as an alternative to the rule of the current opposition,” said Prof. in an interview with wPolityce.pl. Arkadiusz Jabłoński, sociologist at the Catholic University of Lublin.
READ ALSO: When will the coalition agreement be reached? Petru: I’ll know for sure before November 13th. “We must send a signal to Poland and Andrzej Duda”
wPolityce.pl: KO, Trzecia Droga and Left prepare their coalition agreement. Is it already clear to you that the current opposition will take power in Poland?
Prof. Arkadiusz Jabloński: Nothing is self-evident in politics, politics is a game of interests and ideas. If we can say that the opposition has common interests, then we have a very big difference of opinion in terms of ideology and programme. Will this lead to a conflict, preventing the current opposition from forming a government? There is not a high probability that this will happen, but the strength of the balance of interests is always greater, and the interest in power, influence, staffing of state finances, etc. can be dominant.
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and other PiS representatives are still announcing that they will try to form a government and a majority in the Sejm, in an attempt to win some opposition MPs to their side. Do you think there is any chance this will succeed?
Even if that chance does not exist, PiS should not defect without making an attempt to deal with the situation. Of course, everything indicates that this is largely a mission doomed to failure, but on the other hand it is necessary to check whether this is the case and not to decide intuitively on the basis of media statements or enthusiastic content of the opposition. . We must face this, try to invite representatives of individual parties to discussions and present our own offers. Even if it was rejected, at least it would hit the air. Public opinion would be aware of what was proposed as an alternative to the rule of the current opposition.
Wouldn’t this be perceived by public opinion as playing for time and making theater around the issue of forming a new government, since the opposition parties have clearly stated that they have a clear majority and want to co-govern?
If PiS were to give up power immediately, there would in turn be an accusation from the party’s supporters that the party would not even try to retain power and make no effort to create a government on behalf of the more than 7, 6 million people who voted for PiS. . On the one hand, there is the possible fatigue of public opinion, which may already want a solution, but on the other hand, there is also the issue of representing the party that won the elections and having something to offer that is in stark contrast to what KO, Third Way and Lewica propose.
Presidential Minister Małgorzata Paprocka appeared on the morning broadcast of the Catholic radio station Siódma9 and suggested between the lines that the president, in the first constitutional step, would appoint Mateusz Morawiecki as prime minister. If confirmed, wouldn’t such a decision immediately set the president on a confrontational course with the new administration, most likely led by Donald Tusk?
The current opposition will never respect President Andrzej Duda’s gestures. Various gestures towards the opposition were made many times by institutions associated with the commonly understood ruling camp, and these were always seen only as a sign of weakness, and never as a sign of goodwill. Therefore, I suspect that if the President were to appoint Donald Tusk as Prime Minister, it would be interpreted by the opposition to mean that he had no other choice, and it was the strength of the opposition that decided to do so. In addition, there would be speculations that would be very unfavorable for the president, what he wants to achieve with such a decision, etc.
In short, whatever decision the president makes regarding the appointment of a new prime minister, he will still be criticized by the current opposition for one reason or another?
Yes, and I think that in this situation it is better for the president to make a decision that – what can I say – is in the interest of the political climate that has made Andrzej Duda a presidential candidate. Loyalty to certain principles, constitutions and beliefs should be dominant here.
The Civic Coalition made many promises during the election campaign, including: PLN 1,500 “grandmother’s allowance” for mothers returning to work, PLN 60,000 tax-free amount, minimum 30%. teacher salaries increase. There are a lot of these expensive promises. Do you expect these to be implemented?
I believe that some of them should be met, especially those related to increasing the salaries of teachers and public sector workers. However, the remaining promises are postponed. Some of them were presented as an alternative to current social transfers. Therefore, it will be possible to play with this combination of these proposals, possibly pointing out the President’s lack of agreement to changes in social projects.
As for the mentioned “grandmothers”, today in the “Tłit” program of Wirtualna Polska, Miłosz Motyka from PSL was skeptical about the idea of KO, pointing out the superiority of the PIT family to this proposal. This is just one example of the ideological and programmatic differences between the opposition parties, not to mention ideological issues, including: abortion. The question is whether the new coalition will have problems with decision-making?
On the one hand, this is a difficulty, but on the other hand it is convenient, because you can always have an excuse that we need to agree on something, work it out, work out another solution together.
How will voters of the current opposition perceive this?
The current opposition will receive a certain amount of time from the voters at the beginning of its government, so it is called the factor of the Olympic Games, the settlements of PiS, the same satisfaction with the removal of PiS from power, which will strongly change the public mood influence and favor the new government, at least initially. Later, however, the new rulers can justify their negligence and failure to fulfill some of their election promises by saying that another election campaign is coming and that they must fight to further remove PiS from power.
What is the situation of PiS before the upcoming local and European elections? Before the elections, the new authorities will certainly make major personnel changes, and probably also organizational changes in the public media, which will be unfavorable for those still in power. Do you think the upcoming elections will be easier for PiS or vice versa for any reason?
Certainly, the lack of a medium in which you can freely present your own content will not promote PiS’s electoral success. However, local government elections are largely local, so the ability to reach voters in a given area, organize direct rallies, etc. is an opportunity for PiS to at least maintain the support it currently has. However, when it comes to the European Parliament elections, these will be much more difficult for PiS. The question is what message PiS will formulate to convince Poles that MEPs from this party should be present in the European Parliament.
I bet PiS can raise the issue of threats from a possible change to the EU treaties. The question arises, however, to what extent this issue interests voters and to what extent this threat seems real to the general public.
Yes, the difficulty here for PiS is to find a message that will be persuasive to voters and then reach the public with it in the context of PiS’s greater difficulties with access to the media than is the case now.
Source: wPolityce