43 percent of respondents plan to take part in the referendum on October 15; 31 percent have not yet decided whether to vote, and 26 percent. definitely won’t vote, according to a CBOS poll. Participation in the referendum is declared by the majority of PiS voters, as well as by Confederate voters and those who do not know who they will vote for.
As highlighted by CBOS, the survey shows that respondents’ attitudes towards the referendum are mixed, although statements of participation in it predominate: 43 percent.
Almost every third Pole does not yet know if he will vote for it (31%), and every fourth declares that he will not (26%).
CBS reported.
Among those who decide to take part in the referendum, respondents are older (over 65 – 52%), less educated (48%), involved in religious practices several times a week (64%) and adhere to right-wing views (64%). %).
In the group of undecided people, we more often meet younger respondents (18-24 years old – 56%), less educated (primary/high school 40%), who have centrist views (38%) or without specific political affiliations (40%)) .
On the other hand, among those who decided not to vote in the referendum, there are those who are better educated (higher – 33 percent), those who do not participate in religious practices (42 percent) and those who hold leftist views. (49 percent), according to the CBOS survey.
CBOS also examined participation in the referendum depending on the expressed political preferences.
77 percent of respondents planning to vote for PiS in the election said they would definitely participate in the referendum; 20 percent of PiS supporters surveyed had no opinion on this issue; only 3 percent announced that they would not vote in the referendum.
53 percent supporters of the Confederation of Freedom and Independence plan to participate in the referendum. 27% were undecided, 20% announced that they would definitely not participate in the referendum.
The distribution of votes among voters who have not yet decided which party to vote for on October 15 was similar. 52 percent of them intend to take part in the referendum, 18 percent. certainly not, and 30 percent. has not yet made a decision on this.
Opposition voters
Supporters of the Civic Coalition and the Left generally do not go to the referendum, according to a CBOS survey.
53 percent of KO voters stated that they absolutely would not participate in the referendum. 22 percent of voters who choose this political option plan to participate in it; 25 percent have not yet made a decision on this.
Among supporters of the left, 43 percent of voters do not intend to take part in the referendum. 20% took the opposite view. of the electorate, and 37 had not yet made a decision.
Among the supporters of the Third Way (Poland 2050 Szymona Hołownia and PSL-Koalicja Polska) 35 percent. do not intend to take part in the referendum and the same number have not yet taken a decision on this matter. While 30 percent stated that they would definitely participate in the referendum.
CBOS points out that “the percentage of Poles who say they will take part in the referendum is almost twice as low as the percentage who intend to vote in the Sejm and Senate elections (43% versus 80%)”. In turn, 31 percent do not know whether they will take part in the referendum, compared to only 18 percent in elections to the Sejm. so declared.
Previous years have shown that voters declare to vote more often than they actually do, which means that actual turnout is expected to be much lower
– assessed CBOS.
The “Current Problems and Events” survey was conducted as part of the mixed procedure on a representative sample of adult residents of Poland, drawn from the PESEL registry. The survey was conducted from August 14 to 27, 2023 among a sample of 1,024 people (of which 61.9% according to the CAPI method, 24.8% – CATI and 13.3% – CAWI).
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mly/PAP
Source: wPolityce