Georgy Bovt The old horse and furrow on whether Donald Trump has a chance to return to the White House on 11/21/2022, 08:18

Donald Trump, once the favorite and “main hope” of some of our politicians to “restore greatness to Russian-American relations”, has regrouped for the White House in an election campaign. This would be the first such attempt in 125 years (at the end of the 19th century, Democrat Grover Cleveland managed to be reelected for a second term after a similar hiatus and defeat after the first term, plus there was only one in the history of a losing president to be re-elected four years later. for more attempts). However, the current situation for Trump is not at all the same as it was in 2015, when the Republican Party primaries were a piece of cake for him.

And his story is a good example (and a lesson) for other politicians. The main thing is that you should be able to take advantage of defeats and change, not become ugly. We also know examples of the latter from domestic materials. And another lesson is how beneficial it can be to implement electoral democracy, which is considered to be “difficult” and costly.

Because without the current midterm congressional elections (the lower house is re-elected for a minute every two years), the same Trump and his entire party wouldn’t have received a clear call that something went wrong and needed to be fixed. .

Trump entered the victorious five-minute campaign: Now they say I’ll show you vile liberals led by an 80-year-old old man (Biden has just one anniversary the other day). He traveled the country like a young horse, supporting more than one hundred and fifty candidates. Almost everyone, like Trump himself, sang the same sad song about the stolen elections in 2020 and the injustice of the system in the interests of Democrats: No ID checks in polling stations, people can vote without knowing who is who, voting by mail is a general “show of the dead. , etc.

But if they love the “humiliated and humiliated” in any country, it certainly isn’t in America. lost? Erase yourself, stand up and fight again, not Noah in the guise of a victim. In addition, most residents of the American electoral system, which to some may seem monstrously flawed from the outside, are quite content.

And with some shortcomings, it adequately reflects the mood of voters in both individual counties and the country as a whole. I can’t remember a single case where the voters of any constituency were suddenly angry at the fact that they voted differently from what they later calculated, according to their feelings. The culture of counting was more or less honest in the 17th-18th century, when the view that cheating was a sin.

Contrary to many predictions that promised themselves the “red wave” (the color of the party), the real conscious consequence for the Republicans, who with great difficulty won a meager majority in the House and lost the Senate, was Trump. it is no longer a lifesaver, but a poisonous being. He’s the kind of old grandpa who doesn’t realize the world and the political landscape around him has changed a bit, but keeps trying about his own greatness.

All dogs are now hanging on to him from losing senate seats in at least three so-called “swing states”, including Pennsylvania, which largely determined the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Also, Trump is walking around two corners. For sedition (6 January 2021 “Attack on the Capitol”). And for some reason dragging classified documents to his Florida mansion. The latter, apparently, is a manifestation of some painful traits to cling to power and its qualities. It happens to many, we know. However, the existence of a criminal case in America does not preclude being nominated even for the presidency. And for choice too. Moreover, if Trump is found guilty, he can even run his election campaign from prison. There are no official restrictions here either. Although it is difficult to travel around the country with agitation.

Meanwhile, his old friends turn away from him one by one. Pence, a former White House vice president, says Trump was “yesterday”. They say that Pence, who turned sharply away from Trump immediately after the events of January 6, 2021, is the living epitome of “green aspirations in politics” and does not hesitate to try to get himself promoted. Mike Pompeo, the Trump administration’s former secretary of state, also says the Republican Party needs a leader who doesn’t constantly play his “victim”, implying (in a sense) Trump who likes to talk directly about himself in that capacity. victim of election manipulation): “We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who look forward, not rear-view mirrors,” Pompeo wrote in a reporter.
Major party sponsors are turning their backs on Trump, and at least one-third of Republicans still can’t run an expensive election campaign with the small donations of their most stubborn fans. Supreme Rupert Murdoch is said to have been in contact with Trump since the election and has expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of the Republican Party under his tacit leadership. News Corp will likely withdraw its support for Trump, and if Biden is not nominated by the Democrats, he may also support the Democratic nominee. This is how it became!

The party has a new rising star in place of the talkative “old grandpa” – 44-year-old former school teacher Ron DeSantis, who was recently re-elected by a 19% margin (unprecedented for the state). Florida governor.

Until recently, he had occasionally lagged behind Trump in terms of the number of supporters in the party. Now—that’s what life-giving elections do—he’s ahead of him in a number of key states in future primaries. The main thing is that he is gradually gaining fame and popularity throughout the country. In terms of overall party support, the gap with DeSantis narrowed to 47% versus 33%, still in Trump’s favour, but more recently it was 75% versus 18%. There are also polls among Republicans that give DeSantis and Trump an equal chance. Although he has not yet decided whether the first one will run this time. Still young, where to hurry.

Most likely, other contenders will appear in the early stages of the pre-selections, and one of them cannot be ruled out, he can shoot. Again this is unpredictable democracy. In addition to Pence, the same Pompeo, as well as Virginia Governor Glenn Yandkin, are among those named.

Until now, no one is in a hurry to get out, at least for financial reasons. The fact is that during the party pre-selection phase the donation amount is limited to $2,900 per sponsor, so you can’t raise a lot of money this way, you have to save it and use it as efficiently as possible. It also decides everything that most of us do not believe in, far from money: we need an agenda and a well thought out campaign.

So far, Trump’s last motto (other than shoveling the electoral system) on his way to the 2024 election is to deliver the American flag to Mars. However, the peculiarities of the American political system are that neither the lunar nor the Mars program is critically dependent on who lives in the White House.

In any case, it is too early to talk about the outcome of the US presidential election in 2024. Contrary to the popular belief among us that Trump’s return could radically change things here, everything could change, except perhaps Washington’s unwavering support for Kiev. Well, even in the event of his victory (with less and less confidence), it’s easy to guess that Russian lawmakers won’t be greeted with a standing ovation like they did in 2016. We are already scientists, we learned our lesson. Anyways…

The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.