Choices in three acts

In the newly held midterm elections in the United States, different candidates spent seventeen billion dollars on the campaign. First of all, it is the dizzying numbers that tell us about the importance given to power; but also—and above all—the role that massive use of technology plays in voting decisions. It is no longer just a matter of dividing the same neighborhood by neighborhood, street by street, age group – a common practice for years – but managing more advanced and especially invasive tools like Artificial Intelligence. . There is no reliable research yet on the true impact of using these systems, but it’s only a matter of time before we find out. And in any case, why else is such a large sum invested in an election campaign?

Compared to the United States, Spain is still light years away in its use of cyber policy. It is also a matter of time, because the first party that employs it – with the financial means and the will to use the available means – will gain a considerable advantage in the election race. It will no longer be segmented messages, but almost—or hardly any—ammunition individually launched to try to change or strengthen the way each of us votes.

II.

In reality, ultimately, elections are determined by a handful of votes gathered in several places. Type a number: 130. The number of deputies that will allow the PP to once again access Moncloa and neutralize the possible coalition perimeter used by the PSOE: Unidas Podemos, Esquerra, Bildu…, could decide until it reaches the Junts. And here it is important to underline the hypothetical conditional: it can. Or not, if he’s more interested in facing Madrid and the usual demon of the Spanish right – in the name of nationalism – directly. Well. What matters, however, is a figure that oscillates between 130 and 140 deputies, giving Núñez Feijóo real options to win the Head of Government. Any victory below this limit makes Sánchez the protagonist. And the PSOE’s job – which has already begun with protests against the state of public health in Madrid – consists of eroding as much as possible the demographic advantages of the popular.

III.

But first come the regional and municipal ones, which will serve as a launching pad for the general ones. Although it would not be the first time that the PP’s smashing victory in the regional elections turned into a victory of the left in the general elections a year later. It can, but in this case the terms are shortened and the underlying trends should not change excessively. The sum of the disturbances suggests that in the May elections, voters will favor the interests of the right, which should control a significant portion of regional governments. The consolidation of these results will largely depend on the overlap of economic, political, health, social crises and the proper use of the technologies we noted in the first part of this article: the campaign still matters. ; first of all, when it seems so close.