Overview of the Turkish presidential race and coalition dynamics
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, publicly acknowledged the backing of ultranationalist candidate Sinan Oğan ahead of the upcoming second round of the presidential vote. Oğan finished third in the first round, leaving Erdogan and opposition challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in a head-to-head contest, with Erdogan holding a 49.5 percent share of the vote to Kılıçdaroğlu’s 44.9 percent.
Oğan spoke to reporters in Ankara, confirming on Monday that he would lend his support to Erdogan in the second round. The remarks were broadcast live by NTV. In an interview with TRT Haber, Erdogan stated that the support did not come about through backroom negotiations, stressing that both men align on several core priorities in their programs. Erdogan highlighted their shared commitment to counterterrorism and preserving Turkey’s sovereignty, including relations with the broader Turkish-speaking world.
He underscored that no concessions were extracted and insisted that the alliance of their political forces would benefit the nation and the country as a whole. The two leaders publicly discussed the path for repatriation of Syrians and refugees, with Erdogan noting that around 450,000 Syrians have returned to their homes in recent months and that efforts would continue to ensure safe, orderly returns.
Key player
Oğan, who left the right-wing MHP party and now aligns with Erdogan’s ruling AKP, secured about 2.8 million votes in the first round, which equates to roughly 5.2 percent. This positioned him as a decisive figure for the second round and the broader trajectory of Turkish politics. While it remains uncertain whether Oğan’s supporters will follow his guidance as a bloc, his clear endorsement of Erdogan makes the incumbent’s chance of securing a strong majority more likely in the face of a divided opposition.
Meanwhile, the alliance led by Kılıçdaroğlu failed to attain a parliamentary majority in the elections held on the same day, with the AKP, Erdogan’s party, and the MHP forming the coalition that dominated the parliament. The opposition’s inability to seize parliamentary control was cited by Oğan as a potential obstacle for any future government led by Kılıçdaroğlu, suggesting governance could be hindered if the executive faced opposition-friendly parliamentary dynamics.
Additionally, Oğan appeared willing to press both candidates to adopt stringent policies toward Syrian migrants and refugees. On the other side, Kılıçdaroğlu received the backing of the small Justice Party, one of two nationalist factions within the ATA alliance that supported Oğan in the presidential race and which secured about 2.4 percent in the parliamentary vote. The Adalet Party itself obtained a modest share, while the Zafer Party, led by a far-right faction, has not yet clarified its stance and had a meeting with AKP leaders planned for Monday.
As the second round looms, observers watch how Oğan’s endorsement may influence voter behavior and how the coalition dynamics will shape policy directions after the vote, particularly on security, sovereignty, and regional relations. [Source: TRT Haber / NTV coverage; statements from Erdogan and Oğan are summarized from public remarks and interviews.]