Hours remain until Turkey’s presidential election reaches a historic runoff. Citizens must decide who will lead for the next five years. Just a short time ago, polls pointed to an easy win for the opposition candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, but reality shifted the outcome, and the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, secured the presidency with a narrow margin. Now other candidates are weighing in with endorsements and mapping out their visions for the country’s future.
On Wednesday, Ümit Özdağ announced his Victory Party would back Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round, speaking at a conference after meeting the leader of the nationalist party in Ankara. In contrast, on Monday Sinan Oğan, Erdogan’s ally and a contender from the Alliance of Ancestors, pledged support for Erdogan. Oğan, a former member of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party, had claimed 5.28% in the first round, while Özdağ’s bloc slipped slightly. These new endorsements could shift the balance as voters head to the polls again.
Battle to win votes
Though trailing, the opposition is pulling in votes from multiple directions in hopes of steering secular Social Democrat Kılıçdaroğlu to victory in the runoff. One key demographic they are courting includes women who have formed the backbone of Erdogan’s support. An Ipsos poll shows strong backing among housewives, a segment that played a significant role in the 2018 vote, boosting the opposition’s challenge to the current government.
Kılıçdaroğlu has also positioned himself on refugee policy, addressing concerns about those who have left the country. Refugee returns are a hot topic that has intensified the political debate and drawn in Özdağ’s backing. Özdağ urged voters to consider safety and family welfare when weighing who should govern, pointing to the issue of education, security, and local markets as priorities. The debate over refugees has become a major factor shaping public sentiment and support for or against Erdogan.
Erdogan, meanwhile, has not taken a radical stance on immigration. He has signaled a preference for returning the majority of Syrian refugees, and the two leaders discussed repatriation during their talks. Erdogan highlighted that thousands of Syrians have already returned home in recent months and pledged continued efforts to ensure safe and orderly returns.
Another factor shaping the race is Erdogan’s regional presence, especially in the earthquake-affected south. His campaign has focused on delivering tangible relief, including new housing commitments for those affected, aiming to secure local support ahead of the runoff. The disaster response, coupled with rural information access and media coverage, has left many voters steadfast in Erdogan’s corner.
Two future scenarios
If Erdogan remains in power for another five years, government agencies, media, and opposition voices could experience tighter control. Inflation may persist due to monetary policy preferences, and international relations might resist deeper alignment with Western partners, including NATO considerations and Ukraine-Russia mediation dynamics.
Should Kılıçdaroğlu and his allies win, the presidency could undergo adjustments to the executive framework. The opposition has proposed narrowing presidential powers, curbing direct party influence on the office, and setting a clock for presidential terms. Their platform emphasizes reducing inflation toward more sustainable levels and resettling millions of Syrian refugees. Kılıçdaroğlu has also signaled an intention to restart talks about European Union membership and rebuild mutual trust with the United States after years of tension during Erdogan’s tenure.