In last Sunday’s Turkish presidential election, an unlikely participant emerged as a pivotal figure in the ultimate victory, even though he did not advance to the runoff. Sinan Oğan received 5.2% in the first round, a share that prevented him from continuing his bid but shifted the race by forcing a split in support between the two frontrunners, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
According to a Turkish political analyst speaking to EL PERIÓDICO, the second round carries unusual significance. The analyst noted that the runoff is historically unnecessary when Erdoğan has surpassed the 50 percent mark under the current presidential system. Polls had at one point predicted a Kılıçdaroğlu victory, yet Erdoğan led by a substantial margin and remained well clear of a first-round knockout, though not enough to escape a runoff scheduled for May 28.
“King maker”
Oğan quickly became known in the national press as the kingmaker since the runoff outcome could hinge on his endorsement. He laid down red lines in a public statement, indicating he would not back Kılıçdaroğlu. He also asserted that he would support the opposition only if no concessions were offered to pro-Kurdish parties, a move seen as unlikely given their coalition role.
Oğan explained that his team would consult with their voter base before deciding on the runoff. He cited counterterrorism as a priority and stated that the return of refugees would be a decisive issue. The Zafer Party leads the ATA alliance, a coalition of ultranationalist parties known for a hard stance on immigration and for taking a tough line on Kurdish political movements. Oğan later argued that his aim was to remove the two Kurdish parties from Turkey’s political equation and to back Turkish nationalists and secularists.
Erdoğan’s victory
For Erdoğan, the poll results from Oğan’s supporters offered a more plausible path to reinforcement of authority. Analysts suggested that Oğan would not publicly endorse Erdoğan, yet his voters were nearly certain to transfer their ballots to the incumbent. The potential for Oğan and Erdoğan to cooperate on a compact arrangement was discussed, with expectations that Oğan could join the government as a minister following a presidential win. Kılıçdaroğlu has received substantial Kurdish backing, particularly from the eastern regions, while Oğan, an ultranationalist, would not tolerate concessions to Kurdish political groups. Even if a hypothetical shift occurred, the probability of Oğan’s base supporting Kılıçdaroğlu appeared low.
The first-round results already signaled Erdoğan’s resilience, showing less erosion of support than some predicted and preserving a solid foundation for a convincing reaffirmation of authority. The country had recently endured a devastating earthquake and faced a severe economic crisis, factors that complicated the electoral landscape and amplified the importance of a strong leadership response. Analysts noted that Erdoğan exceeded pre-election expectations and prevented a first-round upset by Kılıçdaroğlu.
Voting expectations
Facing the runoff, both candidates began from different positions than in the initial round, and current projections reflected shifting dynamics. Some experts argued that the opposition suffered a premature setback in the first round and that abstention could influence the runoff. A political scientist explained that Erdogan’s supporters could help raise Kılıçdaroğlu only if they turn out to vote; otherwise a lack of mobilization could tilt the results. Concerns about voter motivation and turnout were central to assessments of the electoral posture.
Oğan stated he had not met with either Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu since the vote but remained open to negotiations grounded in core principles. He suggested that a formal agreement with the National Alliance could clarify positions on HDP and other issues, implying that the alliance would stay firm on its stances.