“Turkey will face significant hurdles”
The Turkish defense leadership has signaled a readiness to launch a northern Syria operation at short notice, with the timing hinging on military preparedness, terrain, weather, and the political will to act. The claim underscores Ankara’s willingness to pursue a fresh offensive if conditions align with its security goals.
According to reports from Hürriyet, any Syria move would depend on a decision by President Erdogan following his discussions with President Vladimir Putin on May 30. Erdogan has repeatedly stressed the aim of creating a 30-kilometer security belt in northern Syria, a plan discussed in Sochi in autumn 2019. He argued that past efforts to implement it stalled and that Turkey is ready to act decisively if required.
Erdogan has also referenced the elimination of what he terms terrorist formations in Syria and northern Iraq, with a particular focus on Kurdish forces. He warned that Turkey would not need permission from the United States, which he accuses of arming Kurdish groups.
Turkey has already moved on portions of this agenda with operations such as Claw Fortress against PKK targets in Iraq, which began on April 17, 2022. A week later, Hulusi Akar announced that the initial phase had met its stated objectives and concluded successfully.
There is speculation that a new invasion could be imminent, with Turkish media projecting that about 50,000 Turkish soldiers and allied forces might take part. While Ankara has not officially announced a fresh Syria operation, it has recently claimed to have neutralized a number of terrorists in the region.
On May 30, the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Turkey of ethnic cleansing within Syria, calling the move to establish a security zone a grave aggression and part of a broader policy of ethnic and geographic cleansing by President Erdogan’s government. Damascus described it as a war crime and a crime against humanity [citation: Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs].
Amur Gadzhiev, a researcher focused on Turkey at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that Ankara is likely to maintain a military-political presence in prioritized areas, potentially including new bases. He warned that Kurdish resistance could remain strong. “Turkey is already fighting the PKK at home and on Iraqi soil, and this cross-border move could affect Syria as well. Many variables are unknown, including the status of Kurdish Self-Defense Units. This is their last stronghold, so difficult battles lie ahead, and Turkey will likely face serious challenges,” he commented [citation: Amur Gadzhiev, Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS].
Why the move is seen as necessary
Over the past years, Turkey has conducted several Syria operations aimed at multiple objectives, including the Spring Shield operation in Idlib and actions in spring 2020 after heavy losses. The 2019 Peace Spring operation by the YPG and the Syrian Democratic Forces is frequently cited as a turning point, creating a buffer zone and shaping subsequent discussions within the Sochi framework between Russia and Turkey. Support for Kurdish forces by various partners has been a contentious issue in broader regional negotiations. For Ankara, the objective has been to curb Kurdish influence near the Turkish border and to ensure military readiness for potential shifts in the regional balance.
The Peace Spring outcomes, including a buffer zone between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain, also featured in the Sochi Memorandum, underscoring the evolving security architecture along the border. The ongoing conflict involves a sizable Kurdish population in Turkey and neighboring regions, with a long history of clashes and shifting alliances as different state and non-state actors pursue strategic aims on the border.
Across the region, Turkey’s dealings with Kurdish groups, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have created a multi-layered struggle. Ankara seeks to limit autonomous Kurdish influence near its borders and to bolster allied opposition factions within Syria. The broader regional dynamic continues to hinge on cross-border security arrangements and the alignment of major powers in the Astana framework, which includes negotiations among Turkey, Russia, and Iran [citation: regional security briefings].
There is a sense that Kurdish forces and their international backers remain a flashpoint. Analysts warn that any new Turkish operation would require careful calculations around territorial integrity, regional power balances, and the potential for wider destabilization. The discussion highlights the direct link between security on the ground and diplomatic moves among regional and global actors.
Observers also emphasize the role of international partners in shaping decisions about cross-border actions. Some analysts suggest that tacit understandings with major powers could influence timing and scope, even as public statements emphasize unilateral action. The broader question remains how any new move would fit within ongoing negotiations and the larger effort to manage security along Syria’s northern frontier.
Iranian officials have reiterated that military operations in Syria should not be seen as a path to Turkey’s security. They warn that intervention could complicate efforts to stabilize Syria and regional relations. Other regional experts argue that a Turkish move could reshape alliances and affect the trajectory of the Syria conflict, potentially prolonging instability in parts of the region. [citation: regional political analysis]
Overall, assessments indicate that a new Turkish operation would be met with careful scrutiny by Ankara’s international partners and local actors, as well as by the Syrian government, which controls significant territory. The balance of power in northern Syria, the future of Kurdish autonomy, and the prospects for a durable peace remain central to the debate, with experts noting that any action would carry far-reaching implications for regional security and the humanitarian landscape.