In Turkish society, the Kurdish question remains a deeply painful wound. In a nation of about 85 million people, Kurds are estimated to comprise roughly 15 to 20 percent of the population. This year they could hold the pivotal votes that shape the trajectory of a growing opposition coalition challenging President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government.
Recent polls suggest the pro-Kurdish alliance within the opposition could secure around 15 percent of the vote. That share would elevate the Peoples’ Democratic Party HDP and its partners to a central position in any prospective victory. The Kurdish nationalist movement aligned with the opposition has decided not to nominate its own presidential candidate, instead backing the joint opposition contender, a Social Democrat. Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
The rising influence of the Kurdish movement adds a new dimension to Turkish politics, reflecting a mounting appetite for alternatives to the current leadership.u00a0Diplomat and former executive chairman of IEMed, Senen Flore9n, notes that such a development marks a unique moment when real options to replace Erdogan appear possible. Before now, the outcome seemed more or less determined by other factors, but the political map is shifting in ways that matter for Erdogan and his supporters.
Questions linger about how power would be distributed if the opposition wins. Analysts warn that Kurdish representation in a future cabinet remains uncertain. Predicting the exact weight of Kurdish influence in a Kilicdaroglu-led government is still premature, and concerns about minority rights persist among observers and communities alike.
Erdogan’s authoritarian drift
For years, the Kurdish population faced unequal treatment under Turkey’s political system. In the final years of Erdogan’s tenure, the ruling AKP has been associated with tightening controls and a tougher stance toward Kurdish political actors. This stance has fed fears among Kurdish communities about their political fate and the viability of minority representation within any ruling coalition. In response to government pressure, some Kurdish groups have backed smaller parties aligned with the opposition, seeking to broaden the spectrum of options available to voters. Erdogan’s government has accused the HDP and allied groups of being connected to the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a designation that carries significant political weight and legal consequences. Yet other parties, including those on the Kurdish left, challenge the government’s characterization as they pursue ballot access and political participation through legal channels. This ongoing dispute is likely to shape the coming weeks as constitutional and legal determinations unfold.
Some Kurdish leaders argue that casting votes for opposition candidates is a strategic move intended to widen the space for minority voices and to create a clearer path to political influence. These considerations come amid ongoing struggles, including the detention of Kurdish political figures and activists. Notable cases have drawn international attention and calls for fair treatment under the law. For example, a former Kurdish co-leader has been detained since 2016, with ongoing appeals and human rights remedies pursued in European courts. Such situations underscore the tensions between political competition and minority rights within the Turkish system.
Media reports from the region indicate that unifying votes behind the opposition candidate is yielding results. In Turkey’s four major Kurdish-dominated provinces, a recent survey highlighted favorable margins for Kilicdaroglu compared with the incumbent. The survey, conducted with thousands of respondents across Diyarbakir, Van, Mardin, and Urfa, suggested a significant gap in support for the opposition relative to the current president. This picture points to the broad political reorientation taking place among Kurdish voters and the wider electorate. The data reflect a landscape where turnout and preferences may shift in the weeks leading up to the election, with a large share of voters signaling openness to change and reform within the governance framework. [Citation: Bianet and local polling institutions]