Turkey’s 2023–2024 Elections: Erdogan Secures Re‑election as AKP Maintains Parliamentary Edge
Despite the economic strain and the aftermath of February’s devastating earthquake, Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains a central figure in Turkish politics. The 2023 presidential elections saw voters retain confidence in the longtime leader, with a clear path toward a potential second round in two weeks as candidates and parties await the final official tally.
In the unfolding vote count, Erdogan faced scrutiny over alleged irregularities from the Social Democratic opposition. He ultimately won the presidency by a narrow margin, falling short of the absolute majority he held in 2014 and again in 2018. The unofficial figures circulated by various media outlets place his share around 49.5 percent, while the opposition bloc led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu trails by roughly four percentage points. Kilicdaroglu, who united a broad coalition including social democrats, nationalists, and Islamists, pressed for faster finalization of the results as ballots continued to be tallied.
Observers noted that these numbers reflect preliminary analyses from party reviews and media reports rather than the Election Commission’s official count, which tends to arrive more slowly into the system. Kilicdaroglu publicly criticized Erdogan’s party, the AKP, alleging pressure on ballots and attempts to block the update process. Throughout the day, party leaders suggested that the opposition would lead once all ballots were processed, signaling a potential shift as the tally evolved.
Erdogan, who served as prime minister from 2003 to 2014 before assuming the presidency, framed the election as a test of the country’s direction. He warned that a victory by the opposition could invite risks including a hard realignment with Kurdish groups and destabilization that would jeopardize foreign investments and Western economic influence. Supporters of Erdogan argued that his leadership offered stability and continuity amid economic challenges faced by Turkey in recent years.
The opposition promised a rollback of some restrictions on rights and freedoms, along with steps to stabilize the economy amid currency volatility and inflation. In a broad sense, the election was presented as a referendum on Erdogan’s popularity and the trajectory of Turkish governance since the founding of the republic in 1923. The outcome disrupted many polls that predicted a Kilicdaroglu triumph on a platform of renewed democracy and closer alignment with Western norms while maintaining some links with Russia.
Polls pointed to public dissatisfaction with relief and rescue delays following the February earthquake, as well as dissatisfaction with the handling of relief operations and reconstruction in the country’s southeast, where tens of thousands of lives were lost. Nonetheless, Erdogan and his allies retained substantial support in the most affected regions, underscoring the complex mix of sympathy, political loyalty, and expectations tied to recovery efforts.
If the result is officially confirmed, Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu would face each other again in two weeks, this time without the inclusion of the nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who remains at about five percent in today’s estimates. In parallel, parliamentary voting results showed the AKP and its ultranationalist allies securing roughly 42 percent of the vote and a solid majority of seats, with about 324 seats. That margin translates into continued control of the legislature for the ruling coalition, despite shifts in public opinion and regional disparities.
In this parliamentary context, the AKP stands at the low end of its historical performance, while the opposition bloc claimed around 211 seats and the pro-Kurdish HDP secured approximately 65 seats. The overall pattern marks a notable but uneven shift in voter support, with the ruling coalition maintaining a durable presence across municipal, parliamentary, and presidential contests held since 2002, when a party with Islamist roots first rose to national prominence.
Across the broader political landscape, the results reflect ongoing tensions over economic policy, security, and the management of natural disasters. They sketch a country grappling with inflation, currency depreciation, and the long road to rebuilding in earthquake-affected areas, all while navigating competing visions for Turkey’s role on the regional and global stages. The election cycle underscores a dynamic political environment in which leadership preferences, coalition possibilities, and policy promises will continue to shape Turkey’s trajectory in the coming years.