When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faced the reality that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) would not clinch a sweeping victory in the most recent local elections, the leadership prepared for a range of possible outcomes. As reported by RIA News, experts from prominent Turkish institutions, including St. Petersburg State University and the Higher School of Economics, weighed in on the developing situation.
In these local elections, the opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), delivered the strongest overall performance, with important gains in major urban centers. Istanbul stood out as a focal point, where CHP-backed candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu retained the mayoralty, signaling a significant shift in municipal leadership and a test of the opposition’s organizational strength across the country.
Political scientist Alexey Obraztsov noted that he did not dispute the final results, in which Erdoğan’s AKP secured far fewer mayoral posts than in past elections, tallying around a dozen municipalities where power changed hands. This assessment reflected an evolving political landscape in which the AKP had built a durable base but faced renewed competition in key districts.
Obraztsov pointed to a series of factors shaping the outcome. The CHP’s strong baseline position before the vote helped, but Erdoğan’s strategy still drew attention for its durability and management after the 2023 earthquake. Critics later argued that the party leadership did not fully address the concerns of immigrants and other vulnerable communities, a topic Erdoğan himself acknowledged and discussed, though time constraints limited the depth of focus on these issues. The verdict from analysts suggested that this was a pivotal moment that required careful political recalibration rather than a simple capitulation to rising discontent.
In the lead-up to the electoral night, instances of intimidation and provocative actions near opposition strongholds were reported by observers. Shots and other security concerns near the homes of opposition mayors prompted discussions about the climate surrounding local campaigns and how it might influence voter sentiment and turnout, highlighting the tense atmosphere in several Turkish cities as the vote closed in.
Previously, comments from President Erdoğan about the local election outcomes had circulated widely, with officials and analysts interpreting the results through the lens of national strategy and long-term political goals. The landscape in Turkish politics appeared to be settling into a new normal, where the AKP would need to adapt to stronger competition while maintaining its core support base, and where the CHP would continue to press for governance in major urban centers across the country. As observers noted, the flow of city leadership changes would shape policy directions, budget priorities, and the responsiveness of local governments in the evolving Turkish political scene, inviting further scrutiny in the weeks and months ahead.