Last Sunday, Turkish voters turned out in large numbers to participate in two intertwined elections: parliamentary and presidential. Voting is compulsory in Turkey, yet a notable portion of eligible citizens remain unregistered, creating a dynamic landscape where turnout is high but participation varies by region and age. With stakes near the 90 percent mark for some districts, the outcomes from May 28 carried significant weight for the country’s future leadership. While the polls had suggested one outcome, the actual results did not deliver a definitive finish to the presidency, leaving the nation waiting for a second round to determine the next term. Only on May 28 could the two leading contenders be finally settled for a contest that would decide who would lead the country in the months ahead.
Who is participating in the runoff?
In the second round, the field narrows. Unlike the first round, where four candidates competed, the runoff pits the top two vote-getters against each other. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the current president and the figurehead of the AKP, faces Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader who managed to unite a broad coalition of parties opposed to Erdogan’s governance. The coalition brings together diverse strands of Turkish political life, creating a broader front against the incumbent.
What do the polls indicate?
Polls had forecast a potential opposition victory in the initial round, but the actual tally told a different story. Erdogan achieved a narrow lead with approximately 49.5 percent, while Kilicdaroglu trailed with about 44.9 percent. With the threshold for an outright win hovering around 50 percent, Erdogan stood just a fraction away from securing a mandate for a third term in a single round. The runoff questions how support will shift and where the roughly 5 percent captured by the third candidate will land when voters decide again.
Who is likely to gain Sinan Ogan’s support?
Sinan Ogan emerged from the first round as a political figure who commanded attention. With about 5.3 percent of the vote, Ogan established himself as a potential kingmaker in the runoff. His stance and endorsements could tilt the balance, as both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu court his backing to secure crucial votes. Observers note that the nation will see a contest not just between two leaders but also between competing visions for Turkey’s direction, with Ogan’s position potentially shaping the final outcome.
The first-ever runoff under the current political framework
This election marks Turkey’s first direct runoff under the semi-presidential parliamentary constitutional system that has defined the landscape since 2017. In recent cycles, the sitting president typically secured a majority in the initial vote, but this time the tally did not reflect that pattern. As no candidate reached the 50 percent mark on May 28, the race moved to a second ballot between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, where voters would reassess priorities for the country’s leadership and the policy direction ahead.