Two rival candidates for the Turkish presidency, Islamists Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the current holder of the office, and social democrat Kemal Kilicdaroglu, met this Saturday on the eve of the second and decisive round of the elections, aiming to persuade voters who remained undecided.
Erdogan, who secured 49.5 percent of the vote in the first round held on May 14, began the final stretch with a noticeable lead. Kilicdaroglu trailed with 44.9 percent, creating a clear gap to close for the challenger. To win outright, Kilicdaroglu needed to pull ahead by enough to reach a majority in this second round.
In the current setup, the main question is whether Kilicdaroglu can erode Erdogan’s advantage by mobilizing additional support, especially as the field’s dynamics shift with the presence of a third candidate who has influenced preferences in the past. It is difficult for observers to predict with certainty how the 5.2 percent who named the third candidate will redirect their votes. In the first round, those who backed Sinan Ogan tended to lean toward Erdogan, but the parties behind Ogan had endorsed Kilicdaroglu, complicating the calculation for this second-round contest.
“The voters who supported Ogan in the first round are more likely to move toward Kilicdaroglu in the second,” notes election communications expert Ilyas Bassoy.
This is a fresh campaign with an unsettled outcome. Those who skip the ballot in the second round can effectively tip the scales, the analyst explains to EFE, underscoring the impact of turnout on the result.
Yet, given that turnout in the second round has historically been high, the forecast remains uncertain. In the last decade, participation has approached 89 percent in some elections when abroad ballots are included, or around 86 percent if about three million voters living overseas are counted. There are still many undecided citizens who could swing the result one way or another.
“If turnout falls, Erdogan’s chances rise because his voters tend to be more disciplined,” says Tugrul Turkes, a deputy from Erdogan’s Islamist AKP party, highlighting the turnout dynamic as a potential edge for the incumbent.
As the elections approach, Erdogan’s team continues to stress the importance of every vote and to caution that victory celebrations at rallies should not become a distraction. The message remains consistent: every ballot matters, and the integrity of the process is essential for a credible result.
Overseas voters have begun to realize the heightened stakes, with turnout in foreign polling stations sometimes surpassing domestic levels. This international participation adds a further layer of complexity to the final tally.
On Kilicdaroglu’s side, allegations of obstacles to his campaign have drawn attention. Reports have pointed to the removal or restriction of campaign-related screens and interviews in public spaces, which his supporters say limit opportunities to engage with voters. They also criticized actions suggesting that public spaces should maintain neutrality and that the campaign faced constraints in broadcasting opportunities, such as a long-form interview broadcast on a popular platform that targeted younger audiences.
Kilicdaroglu has also pressed concerns about the treatment of opposition messaging by media and telecommunications providers, arguing that journalists faced difficulties in disseminating information about campaign programs. The dialogue on media access continues to feature prominently in the final days of campaigning, with campaigns vying for fair exposure across the channels that shape public perception.
There is ongoing debate about televised debates, a traditional venue for direct confrontation in Turkish politics. Erdogan has, at times, limited engagement in a live debate format, while many channels have opted to broadcast his messaging repeatedly, leaving less airtime for Kilicdaroglu to present his case. The balance of coverage remains a point of contention as voters weigh the candidates’ policies and leadership visions.
According to Kilicdaroglu’s supporters, public broadcasters have allocated significantly more airtime to Erdogan, while Kilicdaroglu has argued that his campaign has managed to galvanize a broader coalition, drawing together nationalist and right-leaning factions with left-leaning groups advocating Kurdish rights. This cross-sectional appeal has been cited as a potential factor in broadening his electoral base beyond traditional party lines.
There is cautious optimism among scholars about the possibility of reconciliation between different strands of Turkish nationalism and Kurdish nationalism within a democratic framework. Experts have noted that such a fusion could reflect a long-standing aspiration for a more inclusive political settlement, though achieving that balance would require broad-based consensus and sustained political effort, as observed by sociologist Emre Kongar in Cumhuriyet.