Turkey is preparing for a pivotal election as Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a potential shift after more than two decades in power. He led the country as prime minister from 2002 to 2014 and has been president since 2014. The question on many minds is whether Erdogan will secure another term or if a challenger will prevail. Kemal Kilicdaroglu leads in some polls, and regardless of the outcome, the results are expected to influence Turkey’s economy and its global relationships. An international observer notes that the year’s events carry geopolitical weight for many nations, including the European Union, and Spain.
A country that feels distant yet is close at hand
Turkey plays a significant role for the European Union as a neighbor with deep trade ties, growing business links, and people-to-people exchanges. It also acts as a bridge between Europe and the Middle East and Central Asia. For Spain, the partnership is valuable even if it is not the closest ally. Turkey stands among Spain’s major trading partners outside the United States, alongside the United Kingdom, Morocco, and China. In 2022, bilateral trade between Spain and Turkey reached roughly 16 billion euros. The relationship is characterized by a constructive tone that has generally remained steady across different Turkish administrations, according to Eduard Soler Lecha, a professor of International Relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and a researcher with CIDOB.
Spanish firms value Turkey for its skilled workforce and competitive costs. Notable names include fashion groups and retailers that have established presences there, with other Spanish investors such as Indra, Roca, Técnicas Reunidas, Ferrovial, and Acciona maintaining active operations in the country.
BBVA’s holdings in Turkey are prominent, with the bank owning a substantial stake and its chief executive, a Turkish citizen, reflecting the deep connection between the two economies. Analysts note that if Turkey’s election results influence its financial sector, it could in turn affect Spain’s large financial groups.
Another notable development is a Turkish company selected to renovate a major football stadium in Spain, a project rooted in public works concessions under Erdogan’s administration.
EU Presidency
The Turkish electoral climate in Spain has a secondary but telling aspect: the presidency of the European Union rotates on July 1, and the elected leadership will manage Turkey-EU relations in the immediate post-election period. This position will shape discussions on how to deepen ties, express concerns, or apply political pressure as needed.
Spain could become a common destination for the Turkish president or future leadership as discussions about a broader European framework unfold. The European Political Community, which includes 44 countries, will convene ahead of a key gathering of European leaders, and any shift in Turkish leadership could influence the tone of these interactions. If Kilicdaroglu wins, Spain might see a different opening for dialogue with the Turkish government.
Immigration
Turkey’s role at Europe’s outer borders remains central to EU immigration policy. The country acts as a major partner in border controls and humanitarian cooperation, including support for refugees and access to essential services. A 2016 agreement included financial arrangements to support Ankara in managing migration pressures.
With the Aegean situation evolving, a renewed migration episode could emerge. While such a scenario would have limited direct impact on Spain, it would test the solidarity among European nations and the effectiveness of asylum policies. Analysts suggest that any new crisis or the adoption of new strategies could influence Spain’s border management and the degree of European support.
Ties with the EU
A possible outcome of the Spanish elections would be a renewed debate about Turkey’s path toward EU membership. A victory by the opposition could lead to renewed talks with Brussels, though progress would face resistance from some EU members wary of Turkey’s inclusion. The balance of interests would require changes in both Turkish and European positions, so a swift transformation is unlikely, but a reorientation of tone and strategy is plausible.
Should Erdogan win reelection, the existing pattern of competition, selective cooperation, and measured exchange would likely continue. While a break from current policy seems unlikely, interdependence between Brussels and Ankara remains strong, so a dramatic shift is not expected.
Ties with Russia
The election outcome could influence the conduct of regional conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, given Erdogan’s longstanding ties with Vladimir Putin. Turkey has helped facilitate grain shipments to ease food security concerns in the region, a point Erdogan has highlighted as a diplomatic achievement.
If Erdogan remains in office, the country may sustain a balance in its relations with Moscow and its Western partners, continuing cooperation in energy and defense while maintaining support for Ukraine. Kilicdaroglu has signaled openness to aligning with the EU and NATO on foreign policy, but would also seek to recalibrate relations with Moscow. Analysts caution that Turkey’s energy, food, and trade dependencies mean a full detachment from Russia is unlikely, so any policy shift would be measured.