Rising Tides in Turkish Politics as Erdogan Faces a Real Challenge
One prominent billboard in Istanbul draws attention with a man wearing metal-framed glasses, pale hair, and a neat mustache. A line from his mouth proclaims, “I promise you: I will deport all Syrians in two years.” He is the leading candidate for the opposition in Türkiye’s presidential race on May 14, with Kemal Kilicdaroglu at the center-left. The message has sparked debate about the country’s direction and future, and Kilicdaroglu has been explicit from the start about his stance.
Türkiye stands at a pivotal moment this spring. After two decades under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has held the roles of president and former prime minister, the possibility of a power change is now tangible. Polls broadly indicate Kilicdaroglu holding a modest lead, in some surveys as much as ten points ahead of Erdogan.
The contest is more than a two-way battle. Kilicdaroglu leads a coalition that spans different groups, yet it includes parties with notable conservative leanings. The broader tendency in Türkiye shows a shift to the right over time, a pattern observed by experts and political observers alike.
Historian and political scientist Berk Esen from Sabancı University notes that Türkiye has tended to lean right politically. He explains that Erdogan, and the AKP, accelerated this shift after coming to power in 2002. Since 2010, the government has moved toward more conservative and nationalist positions, pushing the center further to the right.
Türkiye’s policy on migration and refugees has been a focal point in recent years. When Syrians began leaving their homeland in large numbers around 2014 and 2015, Türkiye opened its doors. Over time, it became home to a substantial refugee population, and while communities lived relatively peacefully, inflation and economic stress have strained relations. Today, many Turkish citizens express frustration with the refugee issue and the consequences of displacement, while opinions on how to handle the situation vary widely across society.
Analysts note that if European attitudes toward refugees mirrored Türkiye’s current dynamics, similar debates would arise elsewhere. Yet the Turkish public’s stance is shaped by local experiences and historical context. Some observers caution that expectation of a simple retreat of refugees from Türkiye is not realistic, given the complex social and economic realities at play.
Racism and Ideology
Experts see notable differences between anti-refugee movements in Europe and those observed in Türkiye. European far-right currents often target Muslim refugees broadly, framing migration as a clash of civilizations. In Türkiye, while there is opposition to refugee and migrant policies, the critique centers more on the EU deal that has left many refugees in Türkiye and on national sovereignty over migration. The political discourse thus differs in tone and focus, reflecting local social and political dynamics.
According to researchers, Türkiye is not simply a rightward shift in politics, but a nuanced evolution within society. Some indicators suggest broad segments of the electorate view Erdogan’s current stance as more aligned with nationalist and right-leaning policies. This shift has sparked a broader debate about Türkiye’s political identity and its long-term direction for institutions, culture, and governance.
Analysts compare Türkiye’s trajectory to historical transitions in other countries, where changes in political alignment intersect with shifts in social values. Observers note that urban centers reveal a society that is growing more secular and more willing to challenge traditional religious and cultural authority, signaling a transformation in the public sphere and political discourse.
As Türkiye navigates this period, the outcome of the upcoming election could redefine how the country balances democratic norms, secular values, and social cohesion. Public conversations reflect a desire for stability alongside reforms, with citizens weighing trade-offs between economic policy, immigration, and the role of religion in public life. In this evolving landscape, the country’s political center appears to be drifting, rather than moving decisively in one fixed direction, and observers emphasize that the discourse will continue to shift as events unfold. [citation]