last friend
In a moment that seemed staged for diplomacy, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greeted a guest with warmth. The guest, Vladimir Putin, responded with a cordial compliment as the two leaders exchanged smiles and then stepped aside to share a light moment—ice cream to beat the heat in the airport. Erdogan teased that the guest would foot the bill, and Putin replied with a confident, “Sure, sure. How not? you are my guest.”
The scene belonged to another era, a 2019 exchange between Erdogan and Putin at a time when their relationship appeared stable, especially after Turkey’s steps toward mending fences over past tensions following the downing of a Russian jet near Syria and the turmoil inside Turkey in 2016.
Three years later, however, the dynamics shifted dramatically. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggering a broader war and a cascade of economic measures aimed at Moscow from NATO members, including Turkey, which has been part of the alliance since 1952.
As the war unfolded, Russia gradually lost touch with many NATO partners. One exception endured: the relationship between Putin and Erdogan deepened, though it did not settle into a formal strategic partnership. Analysts describe it as a marriage of temporary convenience built on a bedrock of shared interests, a view echoed by Turkish analyst Karim Has expert on the Ankara-Moscow dynamic. (Has, Turkish analyst on Ankara-Moscow relations)
Since that summer, Putin and Erdogan have met face to face several times, while maintaining frequent contact through other channels. Moscow has viewed Turkey as a potential mediator with Ukraine and the West, with Istanbul serving as a critical hub for trade, transport, and dialogue during the conflict. The question remains: why would a Western-aligned country gravitate toward Russia during such a pivotal period? The answer, many observers say, lies in money and leverage.
Turkey, positioned as a corridor for goods and a major trading center, provides Moscow with access to routes and markets that are less accessible to many Western partners. Marc Pierini, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, notes that Kremlin pragmatism has intensified: Moscow seeks to keep Ankara within reach and to broaden cooperation in defense, energy, trade, and finance. (Marc Pierini, Carnegie Europe)
One concrete example is the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project, a joint undertaking that Asia-Pacific and European partners monitor closely. Pierini describes the plant as part of a larger, multi-billion-dollar framework that helps Russia maintain influence through Turkish construction firms while navigating sanctions by maintaining essential equipment supplies. In practice, many technical items—ranging from military components to medical and transportation equipment—face Western sanctions, and Russia continues to face production shortfalls.
For Erdogan, the domestic calculus is equally pressing. Inflation, economic instability, and the ongoing refugee challenge demand evidence of effective governance ahead of elections. Observers argue that Ankara seeks both stabilization of cash flows and solutions for the refugee situation while navigating the broader geopolitical tension between Moscow and the West. (Has, on Turkey’s inflation and political needs)
In Syria, Moscow remains the principal ally of Bashar al-Assad. Turkey, meanwhile, seeks Moscow’s approval for its own regional plans and relies on Putin to restrain Assad from expanding conflict that could drive further refugee flows into Turkish territory. The balance Erdogan pursues is risky. Short-term gains from continued Russian financial support could mask longer-term costs if Western penalties or market responses tighten Turkey’s economic outlook. (Analysts on Turkey’s Syria strategy and its financial ties)
Has warns that the situation could provoke friction with Western partners. The willingness of European and American policymakers to tolerate a fragile Turkish economy hinges on political calculations about stability and alliance commitments. The influence of Turkish banks tied to European institutions, such as BBVA in some observations, underscores the complexity of the broader economic stakes. (Has on Western reactions and Turkey’s banking ties)
Looking ahead, observers suggest that the outcome of Turkey’s elections will influence how the EU responds to Ankara’s balancing act. The ongoing political and economic dilemma invites a cautious approach: while some see Ankara maintaining business as usual for now, the underlying tensions are likely to intensify as regional and global dynamics evolve. (Analytical view on the Turkish election and EU response)