Erdogan-Putin Talks and the Grain Deal: Update on Dates, Venue and Renewals

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may sit down in late August or early September. A Haber, citing a pool reporter close to Turkey’s leadership, relayed the news about potential dates.

According to the information obtained, Erdogan expects Putin to visit Turkey first. If Putin does not come, Ankara would consider sending its leader to Russia. A source from DEA News indicated that Ankara is keen on a meeting in August and is watching for confirmation. The source said clarity is still pending and that the public will be informed as soon as details emerge.

The two leaders are expected to discuss the grain agreement that Russia withdrew from on July 18, along with issues of trade and tourism, and the use of national currencies in such transactions.

The grain deal in brief

The grain agreement brings together Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations to enable the export of grain and other agricultural products from Black Sea ports including Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. The pact was first signed on July 22, 2022.

Representatives from the UN and Turkey committed to ensuring ships carrying grain would not transport weapons or ammunition. A second part of the agreement involved a memorandum between Russia and the UN to facilitate the lifting of export restrictions on Russian agricultural products and fertilizers. The contract was initially set for 120 days with the possibility of extension.

On July 18, the Russian side announced the suspension of the agreement due to perceived violations of its terms, with Moscow ready to resume immediately once those terms were met, according to the Kremlin’s spokesperson. [CITATION: Kremlin press office]

During an interview with A Haber on August 12, Turkey’s Defense Minister Yaşar Güler expressed hope that leading nations and UN leadership would help renew the grain agreement under Erdogan. He noted that the accord had enabled more than 33 million tons of grain to reach countries in need and warned that halting supply could trigger famine risks.

who will go to whom

A telephone conversation on August 2 discussed a Putin-Erdogan meeting and reiterated Türkiye’s readiness to host discussions on renewing the grain agreement. The Turkish side has suggested that the venue could be Türkiye, while Moscow indicated that the presidents would meet to finalize a convenient location. Peskov, the Russian president’s spokesperson, affirmed that the heads of state plan to meet before Turkey’s elections and that Moscow does not want to be perceived as meddling in Ankara’s domestic affairs.

According to Peskov, the leaders planned to meet to decide a venue and date, with the possibility of Erdogan visiting Russia or Putin visiting Türkiye. He noted that plans shifted to avoid any implication of external interference in Turkey’s internal politics.

Putin commented at a July 29 press conference that the two leaders had agreed to meet, either with Erdogan visiting Moscow or Putin traveling to Türkiye, with the aim of progress on the grain deal.

Erdogan also planned to visit Hungary on August 20 to meet Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He was scheduled to attend the G20 summit in India on September 9-10 and then travel to the United States for the UN General Assembly activities on September 17-21.

Hope for Erdogan

In a televised address this week the Turkish president stated that Russia’s return to the grain agreement would depend on Western countries fulfilling their obligations. He emphasized that a lasting resolution to the conflict requires adherence to existing commitments and cautioned that unilateral actions could undermine efforts for a broader ceasefire and lasting peace in the Black Sea region.

Erdogan also argued that Western efforts to expand the Black Sea opening into a permanent peace framework had fallen short and that a durable outcome would require reliable cooperation from Western partners.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, in an interview on August, suggested that Erdogan could play a constructive role in renewing the grain deal. He recalled that last year an agreement on grain was achieved through mediation by the United Nations and Erdogan, with separate understandings involving Moscow. He warned that a creative approach is needed to find workable solutions.