After decades shaped by wars, stalled settlements, and recurring clashes, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has again drawn the world’s attention. A resolution between Azerbaijan and Armenia seemed out of reach for many years.
Yet a military victory seized by Azerbaijan, accompanied by the displacement of nearly 100,000 Armenians from Karabakh by late September, shifted the dynamic. In the three decades of tension, a lasting peace had been mostly fragile, interrupted only briefly in 2020 and again this autumn. The South Caucasus now faces a moment that feels closer to stability than ever before. According to a bilateral accord, the self-declared republic of Nagorno-Karabakh is expected to dissolve on January 1, marking a profound change in the regional map.
Both sides described this moment as a historic chance to achieve the long-awaited peace. They reaffirmed their commitment to normalize relations and to craft a peace accord grounded in international law, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. A joint statement released in early December, a first in the history of Armenian-Azerbaijani diplomacy, underscored this new path forward.
In that statement, Armenia also endorsed Azerbaijan’s hosting of the COP29 climate summit next year. The two governments agreed on a prisoner exchange: 32 Armenians would be released from Azerbaijani custody, and Azerbaijanis would be returned from Armenia. They signaled that more measures would be pursued to build mutual trust, and they urged the international community to back these efforts.
Nevertheless, the path remains imperfect. The European Union and the United States, along with Russia, have attempted to mediate by arranging a series of negotiations between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Aliyev has at times resisted Western mediation, highlighting the delicate balance of influence in the region.
One notable concern in the evolving dialogue is that some detainees from the former Nagorno-Karabakh leadership still remain behind bars in Azerbaijan. Critics argue the process still lacks enough momentum to move toward a comprehensive peace. Observers note that several key diplomatic meetings in Washington, Brussels, and other capitals have not yielded a final agreement. Still, optimistic voices, including analysts in Yerevan, say talks are likely to resume soon with the aim of sealing a broader peace deal.
election date
Analysts say the push for renewed negotiations is intertwined with Azerbaijan’s political calendar, including an early presidential election anticipated in February 2024. Since 2003, when he succeeded his father, Heydar Aliyev, the country’s leadership has remained central to the conversation. Some observers believe a progress on a peace accord could provide a favorable boost to Aliyev’s electoral prospects.
There are claims from experts that a draft text is already about 80 percent complete, with remaining issues touching on the return of liberated Armenian-held lands and the status of border areas such as Syunik, currently under Azerbaijani control. The most challenging negotiations, according to some specialists, have not yet been fully settled, but the essential parts appear to have been negotiated already.
Other voices caution that an early accord may be used to preempt or complicate the electoral process. A prominent Azerbaijani analyst and former political prisoner argued that revealing the agreement could affect Aliyev’s standing, potentially complicating a victory if the agreement appears fragile or conditional on elections. Regardless, many in the region sense that a peace framework is closer than ever, even as both sides acknowledge the road ahead remains long and sensitive.
Ultimately, the trend is toward closer cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan after a long history of conflict dating to the early 1990s and the broader pressures of the post-Soviet era. While differences and unresolved issues remain, both sides appear prepared to bury much of the bitter past and pursue a future that emphasizes stability, economic exchange, and regional security.