The drums of war echo between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a tension that has rattled the region since last September when latent hostilities flared into deadly clashes, leaving more than a hundred soldiers dead on both sides. The Armenian government warns that Baku is weighing a military provocation, while Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has warned that war could be very likely. Rumors circulate about thousands of Azerbaijani soldiers being recruited and weapons reportedly moving from Israel along international air routes. Armenia’s defense minister canceled a Cyprus visit amid rising tensions. In the region, the mood is tense and uncertain as old grievances resurface.
Armenia plans joint military exercises with the United States. This marks a notable shift, as Armenia had previously relied on Russian security guarantees. The exercise, named Eagle Partner 2023, is expected to involve about 300 troops and run from September 11 to September 20. Officially, the aim is to prepare Armenian forces for peacekeeping missions. Washington has stated that heavy weapons will not be used. Yet the drills underscore the ongoing rift between Armenia and Russia, which has historically supported Azerbaijan, a position backed by Turkey.
This is about more than training with the United States. The Armenian First Lady recently travelled to Ukraine to deliver humanitarian aid, and Armenia plans to join the International Criminal Court, which has an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. Earlier in the year Yerevan rejected joint drills with CSTO, the security bloc of former Soviet states led by Moscow.
Criticism of Russia has intensified. The Kremlin summoned Armenia’s ambassador to register a formal protest over a sequence of tensions involving a former Moscow ally. Moscow views Armenia as part of its traditional sphere of influence, even as Russia contends with the broader crisis in Ukraine.
Armenia is seeking support from the European Union and the United States for long term peace. Analysts note that Armenia has felt neglected by its largest ally, Russia, which is heavily focused on Ukraine. Russia maintains a military base in Armenia, with troops monitoring the ceasefire and guarding the Lachin corridor, a mountain route linking Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. The region has an Armenian majority but lies within Azerbaijani territory and remains at the heart of the dispute.
According to Milosevic, a researcher on Russia, Eurasia, and the Balkans, tensions rise as Azerbaijan appears to reinforce its border posture while Armenia conducts drills with the United States. He compares the current dynamics to patterns seen when North and South Korea and the United States or China interact in similar cycles of military displays.
A Century of Conflict
The roots of the conflict stretch back to the collapse of the Russian Empire following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. After the monarchy fell, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia emerged as independent states in the Caucasus. Armenia emerged largely Christian, while most Azerbaijanis are Muslim. Early clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh began as Armenian forces asserted control, setting the stage for decades of confrontation.
Both nations eventually joined the Soviet Union, and the underlying tensions simmered until the 1991 collapse of the USSR. The Nagorno-Karabakh region declared itself independent as Artsakh, though with very limited international recognition. A first full-scale war in the early 1990s ended in 1994 with Armenian victory and mass displacement of Azeris from Nagorno-Karabakh.
The region saw a second war in 2020, this time with Azerbaijan gaining significant ground and suffering substantial casualties. The conflict left thousands dead, including civilians, and resulted in Azerbaijan gaining control over most of Nagorno-Karabakh, especially its valleys. The Republic of Artsakh was reduced to a mountainous enclave connected to Armenia by the disputed Lachin corridor. A fragile ceasefire mediated by Russia has held, but it has been repeatedly tested.
Lachin Corridor
Yerevan has accused Baku of blocking the Lachin corridor since December of the previous year, a move that caused a humanitarian crisis and food shortages in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan denies a blockade but said it would permit aid shipments from the Red Cross. A European Union mission, EUMA, established in January, has deployed about 100 officers to observe troop movements and bolster monitoring.
Two years after the latest war, analysts from think tanks warn that Armenia and Azerbaijan may be edging toward another conflict. The coming days and weeks are viewed as crucial in preventing a broader flare-up in the volatile Caucasus. (Attribution: Prensa Ibérica, EL PERIÓDICO DE ESPAÑA)
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