Tension at the border
Events surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, where the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is situated, intensified on 24 March. The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that Azerbaijani forces crossed the line of contact and occupied the village of Parukh in the Askeran district. Yerevan also accused Baku of shelling NKR territory and obstructing the gas pipeline supplying Karabakh.
Representatives of the unrecognized republic said that the Azerbaijani army violated the ceasefire using small arms and unmanned aerial vehicles, including the Turkish Bayraktar TB-2. According to the NKR, several soldiers from both sides were killed in the clashes.
There are also claims by the Armenian newspaper Hraparak that Azerbaijani forces seized the village of Faruh in the Khojaly region.
The press has highlighted the ongoing volatility in the area, and there is particular emphasis on what some outlets describe as the Azerbaijani leadership’s silence on these developments.
Baku has denied the accusations. On March 25, the Republic’s Ministry of Defense released a statement saying that Azerbaijani troops were refining their positions without engaging in hostilities.
“The assertion that UAVs were deployed in areas under Russian peacekeeper supervision and that an armed clash causing casualties occurred is false and intended to provoke,” the ministry asserted.
How is the situation viewed in Baku?
Aydın Mirzazade, a deputy from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, commented to Gazeta.ru that Armenia occasionally interferes in Azerbaijan’s internal affairs. He noted that the situation in Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh under Russian peacekeepers, is separate from Armenia.
He reminded readers that Armenia signed a memorandum on the withdrawal of its forces. To date, official Armenian authorities have voiced interventions, which he suggested may reflect internal dynamics.
Mirzazade argued that Yerevan might be signaling influence to its own Armenian community over Azerbaijan’s internal matters. He urged Armenia’s politicians and citizens to recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
From his perspective, such Armenian accusations do not hinder the ongoing process of resolving disputes with Russia acting as mediator.
“Official statements about updating bilateral relations come from both sides from time to time. Likely, all issues will be settled, once Yerevan respects Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and borders,” he stated.
What is said in Yerevan?
Edmon Marukyan, leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party, asserted that Azerbaijan has ignored the November 10, 2020, agreement and continues a tense posture in Nagorno-Karabakh, accusing Baku of brazenly violating commitments.
“Previously, provocations occurred, but now they affect Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. It is plausible that Azerbaijan is trying to leverage the crisis around Ukraine, where Russia seeks to exert influence,” Marukyan suggested.
He warned of a potential Azerbaijani strike against Nagorno-Karabakh or Armenia and argued that Baku appears determined to push Armenians out of Nagorno-Karabakh to hold the lands without Armenian residents.
Marukyan noted Armenia’s expectation that Russian peacekeepers would reposition Azerbaijani forces to their designated deployments in light of recent events.
He added that discussions within Armenia concern how Azerbaijani forces reached new villages and evacuated residents as quickly as possible. Negotiations with Russian peacekeepers have yet to yield tangible outcomes, leaving questions about the troops’ exact relocations.
Is there a risk of escalation?
The Nagorno-Karabakh situation has flared repeatedly since the 2020 six-week war, which left Baku in control of more territory and established a formal ceasefire backed by Russian peacekeepers along the line of contact.
Despite accords, sporadic clashes persist, and there is still no final agreement on delimitation or a comprehensive peace treaty. Observers caution that the current violence around Nagorno-Karabakh could complicate any future talks.
Some analysts remain skeptical about a broad revival of hostilities. Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus division at IMEMO RAS, described the broader post-Soviet arena as fragile, yet he does not foresee an immediate major confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia under the present circumstances.
He argued that both sides have an interest in avoiding a large-scale clash, with Azerbaijan focused on consolidating gains from the 2020 conflict and Armenia navigating domestic pressures. The likelihood of a quick, large-scale escalation remains low, according to his assessment.
Aleksey Martynov, director of the Institute for Recent Situations, offered a similar view. He noted that mutual accusations are a recurring pattern, but the current spike does not significantly differ from past tensions. He suggested that Armenia’s recent statements may be a routine part of political discourse, while Azerbaijan denies them. The presence of Russian peacekeepers tends to limit any rapid escalation, making a rapid, wide conflict unlikely for now.