The fighting has returned to Nagorno-Karabakh, a contested region inside Azerbaijan that has sparked two full-scale wars between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani forces launched what they termed an anti-terrorist operation, using artillery and drones to strike near the capital and along adjacent communication lines. The move echoes a long-standing dispute that has persisted since the ceasefire of November 2020. President Ilham Aliyev initially framed the assault as a response to the previous day’s killings and the explosion of two mines, which he attributed to saboteur groups within the Armenian army. He later stated from the presidential palace that the operation would continue until its goals were achieved. Nagorno-Karabakh has been disarmed and the regime that has governed the region under Armenian influence is being challenged to cede control. [Citation: regional security briefings]
Observers familiar with the area note that the latest events come after a harsh, narrow window of peace. In the 2020 conflict, Azerbaijan, bolstered by its oil wealth, and with support from allies including Türkiye and Russia, achieved a rapid victory, reclaiming most of the territory it had lost in years prior. Armenia had held territory since the early 1990s after the first war. The core issue remained unresolved—Nagorno-Karabakh, where an Armenian majority seeks closer alignment with Armenia or full unity, was unable to gain formal international recognition but had operated with Yerevan’s backing. Baku now seeks a lasting restore of full sovereignty over the region, challenging the existing status quo.
The justification for Baku’s moves is clear to some: a desire to reshape the security landscape before any new peace framework bears fruit. Yet concerns linger that Azerbaijan feels strong enough to push ahead without waiting for a broader peace process. The perception of reduced Russian security commitments in the region weighs on all sides. A 2,000-strong Russian force remains in place to monitor ceasefire provisions and the freedom of movement between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a role that is increasingly debated as regional dynamics shift. [Citation: regional analysis reports]
ceasefire violations
What follows is a narrative of stalled diplomacy and renewed hostilities. Azerbaijan’s recent actions have effectively surrounded Nagorno-Karabakh with a prolonged blockade and have sparked fears for the Armenian population there. Armenian voices express disappointment over Moscow’s ability to prevent or halt attacks, prompting analysts to question the durability of Russia’s assurances. The Lacin Corridor—the land link to Armenia—has become a symbol of the fragile peace. [Citation: think tank briefings]
The Armenian leadership, led by Nikol Pashinyan, has faced immense pressure since coming to power in 2018. In interviews and interviews with European outlets, Pashinyan has warned that Armenia’s security has become increasingly dependent on Moscow, even as Armenia signals openness to new partnerships. This shift has sparked debate about how Armenia will balance ties with Russia and the West, and what that means for regional stability. [Citation: political commentary]
In September of the previous year another major clash occurred with significant casualties on both sides. The conflict elicited responses from multilateral groupings, including the CSTO where Russia leads a collective defense framework. Armenia is a member, alongside other former Soviet states, yet cooperation under this banner has been called into question amid broader geopolitical shifts. Since then, Armenian leadership has voiced discontent with Moscow’s trajectory and the practical impact on regional security. [Citation: defense analyses]
Armenia is moving away from Russia
Armenia has shown willingness to participate in maneuvers with the United States while stepping back from planned CSTO activities on its soil. There have been moves toward international accountability mechanisms, including a push to explore membership in the International Criminal Court. This initiative aims to address possible crimes but has drawn fierce opposition from Moscow, particularly after the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. In parallel, Armenia’s leadership has pursued regional diplomacy that includes outreach to Ukraine. [Citation: international law overviews]
A former Armenian parliamentarian noted that the government may seek to diversify its alliances, arguing that Armenia must consider its diaspora and economic realities as it navigates this new strategic landscape. Moscow’s response to these developments has drawn sharp commentary in major outlets, underscoring the delicate balance Armenia must strike between Western engagement and traditional security ties. [Citation: regional political summaries]
The Kremlin has watched closely as political maneuvers unfold, with mainstream media in Europe and beyond weighing in on how the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could reshape regional power dynamics. Regional actors fear that a broader confrontation could reemerge, with long-standing grievances compounding the volatile mix of nationalism, security guarantees, and geopolitical order. [Citation: geopolitical analyses]
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