A renewed clash in the Caucasus two years after the recent war
Fresh hostilities have erupted in the Caucasus as Azerbaijan moved along segments of its border with Armenia. This development adds another chapter to a long-running dispute that continues to mold security calculations and political alignments across the region.
A frozen clash after the Soviet era
The collapse of the Russian Empire and the birth of new republics in the Caucasus set a historical course defined by contested borders and shifting identities. In the high mountain zones and forested plateaus near Karabakh, Armenian communities predominated in upland districts while Azeri populations were more common in valleys adjoining Armenia. As the newly independent states sought to draw definitive lines, minor clashes escalated into broader confrontation. The first exchanges centered in upper Karabakh, a rugged, forested belt that became a flashpoint along the Armenia-Azerbaijan frontier. The fighting persisted for a year until Red Army intervention restructured control, with Karabakh absorbed into the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic and Armenia remaining under Soviet governance, effectively erasing the border in practice. — regional history compendium
The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic takes shape and the first war
With reforms opening up, Armenian communities pressed for closer ties with Armenia, triggering a wave of violence and the earliest pogroms of the late 1980s. A survivor recalled the terror of those days, describing a city where a young girl was killed by a mob and memories of the violence resurfaced repeatedly. By 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, comprised mainly of Armenian-populated areas, proclaimed itself independent. It remains unrecognized by any state. The ensuing conflict lasted until 1994, claiming tens of thousands of lives and forcing Azeri residents from Karabakh’s valleys as towns lay deserted and landscapes bore the scars of war. — regional history compendium
Armenia’s victory and the enduring blockade
Armenia emerged victorious on the battlefield, but the victory brought a fresh set of constraints. Surrounded by neighbors and landlocked, Armenia faced limited access to the sea and a complex web of closed borders. It borders Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran. Turkey closed its border in response to Armenia occupying Azeri lands, while Azerbaijan fortified its defensive lines. Iran, aligned with broader regional sanctions, maintained its cautious stance. Only Georgia offered a potential corridor to Armenia, yet that route proved unreliable amid shifting regional dynamics, especially after the 2008 Russian intervention. Armenia largely depended on air links and support from Russia, its principal ally and regional power broker. — regional history compendium
The second Karabakh war and its aftermath
In September 2020, Azerbaijan leveraged its energy wealth and, with Turkish backing, relaunched the conflict that had lingered since earlier clashes. The six-week war yielded significant gains for Azerbaijan, with Armenian forces suffering sharp setbacks and losing control of surrounding areas and parts of Karabakh, including the region’s second-largest city, Shusha. A ceasefire brokered in November 2020 left Russian peacekeepers in place and created governance that allowed Azerbaijan to control access to Nagorno-Karabakh. A corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan was established, shaping movement and trade in the border region. The ceasefire set a new balance, though tensions persisted on the front lines and among regional players. — regional history compendium
Unsteady truces and ongoing tensions
Even with the ceasefire, sporadic violence has punctuated the frontier, underscoring a fragile peace. Recent attacks on Armenian territory remind observers that the area remains volatile. The broader security environment in the Caucasus remains influenced by Moscow’s diplomacy, regional alliances, and wider external pressures shaping decisions on security, influence, and resources. The persistence of the conflict affects civilian life, regional stability, and the strategic calculations of neighboring nations, with no durable settlement in sight. — security studies review
Citations: historical summaries and regional analyses attributed to regional historians and policy briefings. (citation: regional history compendium) (citation: security studies review) (citation: conflict analysis journal)