The year 2024 kicks off with a broad wave of voting that will ripple through many nations. More than 70 countries, including some with substantial influence, will hold elections to choose heads of state and government, lawmakers, or regional and local representatives. In total, roughly 4 billion people are expected to participate, representing about half of the world’s population.
Experts from the Barcelona Center for International Affairs CIDOB describe these elections as a crucial stress test for democracies that have faced rising pressures and drifting governance in recent years. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance International IDEA notes in its 2023 assessment that governance systems around the world are contracting, with around half of 173 countries recording declines in democratic performance.
Voting is never a mere formality. In many places, leaders seek legitimacy through electoral mandates, yet these processes are framed by competing priorities and constraints. CIDOB’s latest briefing identifies the central challenges likely to shape 2024, while International IDEA emphasizes that the quality of democracy matters just as much as the ballot results. Respect for human rights, anti corruption, meaningful citizen participation beyond elections, and judicial independence all contribute to a healthy political system.
What follows is a concise look at some elections that will leave a mark on the year ahead:
Taiwan
The first major vote of the year unfolds in Taiwan, a poll that will influence geostrategic dynamics between China and the United States. On January 13, residents will elect new leaders on an island Beijing claims as part of its territory. Taiwan hosts about 63 percent of global semiconductor production, a critical factor for most electronic devices. Polls show the current vice president, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, as the leading candidate with a pro independence stance. The opposition has not unified behind a single challenger, presenting Hou You-yi of the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party as contenders pursuing different paths toward Beijing and Taipei respectively.
United States of America
The United States enters a heated election cycle this year, culminating in the presidential vote on November 5. The campaign calendar begins in mid January in Iowa, with a Republican contest playing out across several states. The Republican field is widely anticipated to nominate a formal candidate by mid July. Polls consistently point to former president Donald Trump as the leading challenger to face the incumbent Joe Biden, though ongoing legal matters in multiple jurisdictions may influence the race. In some conversations, these legal developments add uncertainty to primary dynamics and public perception of the process.
Beyond political drama, observers note that these elections are shaped by broader questions about governance, accountability, and norms that influence public trust in institutions.
European Union
Across the European Union, 27 member states will elect representatives to the European Parliament in a vote spanning early June. Polls forecast a strong showing for far right parties in several countries, though the European People’s Party is expected to maintain a working majority, potentially with a weaker coalition. The Parliament historically divides into center right and broader conservative blocs, with a growing presence of nationalists and anti establishment voices. These shifts could prompt new alliances and strategies among EU wide parties as they balance national priorities with shared European goals.
Russia, Iran and India
In March, elections and leadership decisions carry significant regional and global consequences. In Russia, Vladimir Putin is set to seek another term, while the opposition faces notable obstacles. Iran schedules parliamentary elections to fill seats in the Islamic Consultative Assembly, and the Assembly of Experts may influence succession dynamics for the supreme leader. Iran’s internal landscape shows a notable number of candidates disqualified, narrowing the field. Meanwhile in India, Narendra Modi faces a general election as the world’s most populous country, with a broad, united opposition contesting a robust incumbent and reflecting shifting dynamics within a major emerging democracy.
Ukraine, Venezuela, Tunisia and Libya
These ongoing electoral situations illustrate the broader turmoil across regions. Ukraine is poised to hold presidential elections in March, while wartime governance and security concerns shape the landscape. Scheduling has been affected by conflict and national security considerations. In Venezuela, the opposition’s pursuit of a consensus candidate faces hurdles as tensions influence the roadmap for a presidential contest. Tunisia plans to hold elections in autumn, yet worries about democratic backsliding persist under the current leadership. In Libya, talks between rival authorities move toward a potential electoral path in 2024 after several postponements.
Taken together, these electoral events show how political legitimacy, governance quality, and the protection of rights interact with the practical realities of government under pressure. As 2024 unfolds, observers will assess how the ballot box engages with institutions, civil society, and the rule of law to shape the health and future of democracies worldwide. Elections are catalysts for political order, not guarantees, with outcomes that will influence regional behavior and global diplomacy, as noted by CIDOB and International IDEA.