It begins in 2024 with a global wave of electoral processes. More than seventy countries, including some with significant size or geopolitical influence, will use ballots to choose heads of state and government, lawmakers, or regional and local representatives. In total, around four billion people, representing roughly 51% of the worlds population, are expected to cast votes.
Researchers at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB) describe these events as a major democratic stress test in a period marked by notable political friction. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) notes in its 2023 report that the worlds governance system continues to contract in many regions, with about half of 173 countries reporting declines in democratic indicators.
Yet the act of voting should not be misread as mere ritual. In several nations, ballot boxes are used to reinforce leadership that seeks legitimacy in the eyes of citizens. CIDOB underscores the 2024 agenda by highlighting issues that will shape political debates. International IDEA emphasizes that the health of democracy hinges not only on elections themselves but also on the quality of governance, respect for human rights, the rejection of corruption, meaningful citizen participation beyond the ballot, and judicial independence.
What follows is a concise overview of elections likely to leave a mark on the year ahead:
1. Taiwan
The year kicks off with Taiwans elections, which will influence geostrategic balances among regional powers. On January 13, residents of the island, which Beijing claims as part of its territory and which hosts a substantial share of global semiconductor production, will choose new leadership. Polls indicate the current vice president, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, as a frontrunner. He supports Taiwans independence stance. The opposition has presented two candidates: Hou You-yi of the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan Peoples Party. The race is watched closely for its potential implications for cross-strait relations and global tech supply chains.
2. United States
In the United States, the electoral cycle unfolds with a presidential election on November 5 following a busy slate of primaries beginning January 15 in Iowa. The Republican contest is expected to feature a series of state votes as campaigns build toward an official nominee in mid-July. Public sentiment consistently points to a high-profile matchup between former President Donald Trump and the sitting president from the Democratic side. Ongoing legal challenges and political controversies surrounding Trump have shaped discussions about eligibility and policy directions. Courts in multiple states have weighed in on questions surrounding past activities, affecting perceptions of the electoral process and its participants.
3. European Union
From June 6 to 9, twenty-seven EU member states participate in elections to the European Parliament. Polls suggest that far-right groups could gain more influence, with factions such as Identity and Democracy and Conservatives and Reformists increasing their reach. A prevailing expectation is that the European Peoples Party will retain leadership, though with a diminished majority that may compel alliances with more conservative or right-wing groups to secure legislative majorities. These dynamics could shape policy directions on issues like migration, security, and the single market across the bloc.
4. Russia, Iran and India
In March, Vladimir Putin is anticipated to seek another term as Russias president, a race conducted amid a controlled political environment where opposition figures face significant hurdles. In Iran, parliamentary elections will determine the composition of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, with potential implications for leadership succession and regional policy. Iran has expelled a notable number of candidates, narrowing the field. In India, the worlds most populous nation after a recent population shift, Narendra Modi will aim for a third term against an opposition that is more unified in facing the current administrations agenda than in prior years.
5. Ukraine, Venezuela, Tunisia and Libya
These nations illustrate ongoing electoral processes amid turbulence. Ukraine faces a presidential ballot scheduled for March 31, with martial law active since Russias invasion, complicating electoral norms even as the state seeks continuity. President Zelensky has indicated that this period is not a typical election season, but a moment of resilience during wartime. In Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro faces pressure from the opposition, which has united behind a consensus candidate, María Corina Machado, potentially shaping the votes trajectory. Tunisia, with autumn plans for elections, faces concerns about democratic drift and governance challenges under Kais Said. In Libya, negotiations toward elections in 2024 are underway after numerous postponements, with dual governments reflecting ongoing political fragmentation.
Across these cases, observers stress that elections are more than ballots. They are tests of policy legitimacy, institutional strength, and citizens confidence in how power is exercised and checked. The coming year will reveal how different systems balance the need for stability with the demand for accountability, human rights, and transparent governance across diverse geopolitical landscapes.