After decades of wars and intermittent deaths, unfinished disputes and endless fights, lightning attacks and mass migrationsthe conflict seemed to be over Nagorno-Karabakh A solution between Azerbaijan and Armenia will not be possible.
However, the military victory imposed by Azerbaijan with brute force and the forcible displacement of 100,000 Armenians remaining in Karabakh in late September this year changed everything. For the first time in 30 years of conflict Frozen since 1994 Except for two months in 2020 and this fall, peace has been maintained between the country’s two smaller neighbors. South Caucasus It seems closer than ever. According to the agreement reached by both countries, this January 1 the self-proclaimed republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist.
“Both parties agree to take advantage of this opportunity” historic opportunity Achieving the long-awaited peace in the region. We confirm our intention once again. normalize our relationsand reaching a peace agreement based on respect for international principles sovereignty and territorial integrity“A joint statement was made between Yerevan And Baku -the first in history- was published in early December.
With this joint statement, Armenia also supported Azerbaijan for Baku to host the COP29 international climate summit next year. Both countries agreed exchange of two prisoners Azerbaijanis in Armenia 32 Armenians in Azerbaijan. “We will continue our discussions on the implementation of further measures that will ensure more production.” mutual trustThe joint statement continued: “We call on the international community to support this effort.”
But not everything is that simple. Both of them European Union (EU) like United States of America And Russia They tried to mediate between Baku and Yerevan by organizing various meetings between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Azerbaijani president. Ilham Aliyev. Aliyev has always rejected Western efforts.
“The most interesting part of this joint statement is that dangerously lacking. There are still many soldiers and civilians detained. Former Nagorno-Karabakh officers They are currently detained in Azerbaijan. It is also quite insufficient. Boycott of Azerbaijan The last four diplomatic meetings to be held Washington, Brussels and Grenada. “But I hope that bilateral negotiations will begin soon to reach a peace agreement,” he said. Richard Giragosianmanager Center for Regional StudiesA. think tank in Yerevan.
election date
Giragosyan assures that the reason for this return to negotiations is Aliyev’s election rush. early presidential election In Azerbaijan in February 2024. Aliyev has dominated his country since 2003, when he succeeded his father. Heydar Aliyev— has a better chance of re-election than is warranted. However, according to the expert, a nearly completed peace agreement could give him a strong electoral boost.
“I know from good sources that Agreement reached on 80 percent of draft peace agreement text. Loss approx 20% liberation of all Armenians Currently in Azeri custody border line And withdrawal of armed forces Giragosyan explains, referring to Azerbaijan’s small lands in Armenian territory: Syunik It is currently under the control of the Azerbaijani Army. “But the most difficult part has already been negotiated,” says the expert.
But others are not so optimistic. “Baku called for early elections in February, postpone or avoid directly signing of the peace agreement,” he said in an interview with the media in early December.promise of freedom‘ Azerbaijani academic and former political prisoner Arif YunusHe continued: “Aliyev may suffer loss of reputation after the text of the agreement was made public. “Therefore, it may be more difficult for the Azerbaijani president to manipulate an election victory if an agreement is reached before the elections.”
Regardless, a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is closer than ever: these two countries have been in conflict since 1991 – although the dispute over Karabakh began before the founding of Armenia. Soviet Union– they are finally about to bury the hatchet.