Valencian Politics in Flux: Polls, Power, and the Mazón Era
On July 4, 2021, the author warned about a real threat tied to Carlos Mazón’s rise as regional chairman of the PP. The move targeted the Valencian Community’s governing Generalitat, signaling that the PP had shed its hesitations and believed it could reclaim power in the region. A year later, Mazón’s ascent was celebrated, yet Valencia’s political landscape remained unsettled. The PSOE and Compromís remained largely silent that day, while Unidas Podemos lingered in a marginal role. The question now is whether the left has an effective path forward in this evolving dynamic.
Recent surveys show a right-leaning bloc led by the PP and Vox gaining ground in both votes and seats, a reversal from a year earlier. In Andalusia, where the region’s significance is symbolic for the PSOE, polls capture a moment of perceived strength and a governing party that appears to hold an absolute majority. In Valencia, the left faces a challenging period, with the Generalitat’s stability seemingly cushioned by a crisis within Compromís, complicating a straightforward leftward recovery.
Looking back to 2019, Valencia’s regional election produced a fragmented result. The bloc coalition that included the PSOE and Compromís, alongside the PP, Ciudadanos, and Vox, ended with 52 seats for the right and 47 for the left. Yet this tally did not fully reflect the vote spread or the complex distribution of support among candidates. The margin separating blocs was relatively narrow in a large electorate, underscoring how small shifts can redefine control in a multiparty system.
The reality is nuanced. The PP, once dominant on the right, faced competition from a renewed center-right and a rising Vox. On the left, the PSOE had historically navigated competition with long-standing left-wing formations whose influence waxed and waned over the years. Since the absorption of the Valencian Union over two decades ago, left dynamics shifted, with notable changes in 2015 and again in 2019 that altered the balance of seats between coalitions and individual parties.
Moreover, the 2019 result appeared ambiguous. Although the left held some ground, the precise distribution of seats did not necessarily align with unified support for a single leadership. Compromís, for example, found its influence fluctuating, and Unidas Podemos saw its position shift as alliances formed and dissolved. The left’s broad coalition occasionally masked underlying divisions that could affect future elections, especially as new electoral alignments emerged among regional actors.
Forecasts circulating at the time suggested the right could regain momentum, with projections placing the right bloc at around 52 seats and the left at about 47. Yet those numbers depended on turnout, mobilization, and how voters responded to ongoing political dynamics. The terrain remains volatile, with votes and seats moving as campaigns highlight differing priorities and identities among Valencian voters.
One focal point is how the right potentially replenishes its ranks. The disappearance of Cs from the vote, when their support dipped below 3%, left a gap that Mazón and the PP sought to fill by appealing to a broad spectrum of voters. On the left, the fate of Compromís and Unidas Podemos hinged on turnout and the ability to attract disenchanted voters who might stay home rather than support the traditional left slate. The PSOE faced a delicate balancing act: maintaining its base while expanding toward the center without alienating left-leaning constituencies.
Political scientists note a historical quirk in Valencian elections: the so-called Hont’s premium can push the party with the most votes toward a legislative edge of several seats. In this context, Mazón and the PP appear to be leveraging a combination of regional confidence and strategic alliances to recover strength, even as Vox continues to grow and influence the rightward coalition. Feijóo’s leadership is seen by some as a catalyst that energizes Mazón, while Casado’s lingering influence adds another layer to the internal power dynamics within the PP, shaping how provincial and regional actors engage with national strategy.
Across the left, the PSOE remains a central but often contested force. Its ability to convert potential alliances into actual governance depends on coordinating with partners who can complement its program. If a coalition coalesces effectively, the left could still shape Valencia’s trajectory; otherwise, the decline in votes for Compromís and the risk of voter abstention could tighten the race against the revitalized right.
Observers also note a shift in the political rhetoric surrounding Mazón. His approach has drawn comparisons with earlier regional leaders, but the real test lies in how convincingly he can translate support into governance. The Valencian elite’s reception of his leadership, along with how he handles economic pressures and social concerns, will influence the broader perception of his tenure. The political atmosphere mirrors a period of intense competition reminiscent of the mid-1990s, when party dynamics in the region began to take on a sharper, more centralized form of leadership.
Recent developments in regional institutions, such as chambers of commerce, indicate that Mazón’s approach to leadership is not limited to electoral campaigns. Reactions from business communities reveal the broader impact of regional politics on everyday governance, signaling the importance of securing a stable base while navigating the expectations of diverse stakeholders. The outcome of these dynamics will become clearer as future campaigns unfold and voters decide whether to embrace renewal or cling to established alignments.
In the end, the Valencian landscape remains in motion. Mazón’s rise, the state of the PP, Vox’s growth, and the left’s strategic choices all interact to shape a region that continues to test traditional party loyalties and redefine the path to power. The next election cycle will reveal how much weight these trends carry and which narrative best resonates with Valencian voters in a changing political climate. (Source: political commentary and regional election analyses.)