A storm system known as DANA struck Valencia province on October 29, leaving more than 200 people dead and causing damage measured in billions. The disaster has sent shockwaves through the regional political scene, and what looked settled at the end of last month is now uncertain. The legislature is in its second year since the 2023 elections that ended the Botànic era and placed Carlos Mazón of the PP at the helm of the Generalitat.
Yet the PP failed to secure a parliamentary majority and formed a regional government with Vox, a coalition that collapsed in mid-July after Santiago Abascal cut ties with Génova over how migrant minors were allocated. The latest public snapshot, taken on the national holiday of October 9, suggested the PP was closing in on an absolute majority, with around fifty seats in the Cortes. A Lápiz Estratégico Consulting poll for Prensa Ibérica outlets in the Valencian Community pointed to a significant PP gain after Mazón’s first year, rising from about 40 to 46 seats, largely at Vox’s expense which would drop five of its thirteen seats. The PSPV would rebound with three extra seats, while Compromís would lose four seats.
What’s at stake
The DANA disaster rewrites the political map. The president of the Generalitat is under heavy scrutiny for how the catastrophe was handled and is in the national spotlight, especially for delays in visiting Cecopi on the tragic afternoon of October 29. In the face of pressure and a Valencia street demonstration on October 9 where tens of thousands called for his resignation, Mazón has chosen to press on and now pins the reconstruction effort on a new strong hand, retired general Francisco José Gan Pampols, to lead the response.
If the storm unsettled the PP, the mood in other parties shifted as well. The PSPV has signaled readiness to respond to any scenario in the short to medium term. The party had refreshed its regional leadership in March when Diana Morant took over as General Secretary after Ximo Puig stepped down. Sources say the leadership once mapped a three-year plan to position Morant for the 2027 regional vote. Now there is talk of a possible electoral rush within months or sooner. Morant’s public profile will be built while Mazón’s administration faces the test of crisis management.
In the immediate term, the government has been reconfigured with Mazón dismissing two close aides, Salomé Pradas and Nuria Montes, and bringing in four new faces. The lineup includes Francisco Gan Pampols as a key political actor, along with Juan Carlos Valderrama in Emergencies and Internal Affairs, Nuria Martínez in Justice and Public Administration, and Marián Cano in Innovation, Industry, Trade and Tourism. The reshuffle also mirrors tensions with national PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who publicly urged caution with Mazón’s decisions. Genoa’s earlier concerns about Mazón striking an accord with Vox and Feijóo’s path to Madrid have resurfaced in private conversations.
Analysts say Mazón’s ability to steer a credible reconstruction could refresh his image and ease lingering doubts about his leadership. Observers point to a renewed emphasis on technical profiles for leadership and to the Emergency and Internal Affairs ministries as responses to ongoing weather events across the Mediterranean. Close associates say an effective recovery could improve public perception and knit together party factions, yet the path ahead remains fragile. Attention also centers on Teresa Ribera, the national authorities and the regional agencies involved in crisis response. In electoral terms, PP strategists foresee Vox and Compromís gaining ground in the near term, while the PP remains the party with the strongest vote share in the longer run. The PSPV, meanwhile, has criticized what it calls an election-driven approach and ties Morant’s fate to Pedro Sánchez in Madrid.
From the budgets
Back with the PSPV, the Valencian federation shifted its stance in the four weeks since the disaster. Morant initially backed unconditional support for the regional budgets as a sign of political unity, but also a way to press Feijóo on the state’s fiscal plans. After Mazón presented his management in the Cortes on the 15th and before his address, Morant altered course with a new proposal offering PSPV votes to unseat Mazón, initiate a technocratic government led by the PP to manage reconstruction, and call elections next year.
Compromís pursued a different path. The Valencian coalition has been pushing a no-confidence motion against Mazón in the Cortes. Vox indicated it would not join, and the PSPV remains hesitant but not closed to future backing. “We know it wouldn’t pass, but it would be a loud signal that Mazón should go,” a Compromís figure said.
PSPV: From boosting Diana Morant’s profile to preparing for the election in three years
PSPV arrived with a relatively new leadership and the Seville Federal Congress approaching. Morant took the post of Secretary General in March. The October poll gave the socialists three more seats and tempered any dream of an absolute PP majority. PSPV sources say their strategy is to consolidate Morant’s candidacy within three years. Now, with DANA reshaping the regional landscape, they hint at moving the electoral clock forward in the coming months.
The PSPV agenda includes promoting Morant’s image as a capable engineer and public servant, contrasting this with Mazón’s administration. After the Seville Congress, successive socialist meetings would build a platform to boost her profile. The DANA event has altered the scenario, and Valencian sources estimate a 30 percent chance of an early election. “If we look at Mazón’s governance, every vote counts,” a party source noted.
Within PSPV, there is an effort to exploit the DANA-induced erosion of the PP, painting a narrative of ineffective crisis management by the conservative administration and suggesting a socialist government would handle the aftermath with less disruption. Climate policy is a focal point, underscoring the ties between the PP and the far right that were part of the Consell until July. If an early vote is called, the PSPV intends to present a bloc-based argument to voters. On the no-confidence motion, the party is not supporting it now but has not ruled it out in the future either.
Loyalty pressures Mazón to resign with no-confidence motion
Since the 2023 regional elections, Compromís has faced leadership questions and has seen its alliance with the two major partners weakened. The coalition has worked to reconnect with Valencian civil society, a process highlighted at a party congress led by Gerard Fullana, a member of the Cortes. The congress stressed the importance of renewing ties with communities that helped build the Botànic platform in 2015. In the wake of DANA, Compromís has actively offered victim assistance and pushed for independence-level investigations, advocating for commissions in both Cortes and Congress to probe the disaster.
Vox. The difficult balance between endorsing the PP and not joining the left
Before the disaster, Vox faced internal divisions within its parliamentary group after exiting the autonomous government with the PP in July. Santiago Abascal’s leadership anchors decisions in Madrid, with figures like Ignacio Garriga and Jorge Buxadé taking prominence, while other former faces have faded. In Alicante, Ana Vega lost the Vox provincial presidency after becoming a voiceless presence in the Cortes. In the months before DANA, Vox had been negotiating with the PP on regional budgets but clashed over immigration and taxation. The tragedy has left Vox in a tense position, seeking to maintain opposition credibility without aligning with the left. The party has been cautious about mobilization and will not back a no-confidence motion in the Cortes; they also won’t push for early elections. They plan an extraordinary general meeting to lay out their roadmap to new councilors and expect budgets to be due in March.