Narciso Michavila, identified as the PP’s chief sociologist, spoke to AVE business leaders during a plenary session in Valencia this week. He predicted a significant shift by the next general election, with a strong showing for the PP. He noted that the transformation would be clearly visible in the municipal elections scheduled for 28 May. In the closed-door meeting, his forecast for the Valencian Community was more cautious, highlighting the rise of Carlos Mazón while keeping a firm line. He suggested that the political landscape was essentially balanced, with the left and right blocs neck and neck today.
Not all of Michavila’s colleagues share this optimism. José Luis Sanchis, a veteran adviser, argued there could be a draw at the national level even with stronger leftward voting, explaining this in El País last Sunday. Mazón’s polling data has been released regularly, and some results have already been reported here. The latest PP poll showed a clear victory for the party over the PSOE (36 seats for the PP, 27 for the socialists), while the right-wing bloc could command 51 MPs across PP and Vox. The PSOE, Compromís, and Podemos would total 48, and the left would likely fall short by four seats from the current Cortes totals, leaving the left in opposition after two terms.
Narciso Michavila, the PP’s “guru,” told AVE business leaders that a general-election comeback is possible, though the Valencian Community race may end in a draw.
The headline takeaway is that the PP could reclaim the 2019 vote captured by Ciudadanos, driven by the disappearance of the orange party and a near doubling of those results. Vox, projected to win 15 seats, would continue to rise, albeit with some fluctuation between surveys. Compromís is expected to stay strong despite repeated upheavals within its ranks, including the controversies surrounding Monique Oltra or Mireia Mollà, which may have reduced their seat count by one compared to current levels. If Podemos clears the 5 percent threshold, it could secure three deputies, while the PSOE would struggle to compensate for its losses with a modest gains, reflecting the Botànic partners’ waning numbers. The PP is already aiming to double its seats.
It is important to note that the poll originates from a party poll conducted under the PP leadership and should be read with that in mind. Beyond the raw numbers, the results point to underlying currents that matter: a rising mobilization of the right and a perceived lethargy on the left. José Miguel Iribas, a respected pollster known for honest assessments, once said the key question is not who wants to win, but who believes it will win. In this survey, there are more people convinced that the PP will win in the Valencian Community, though the margin remains slim.
Mazón’s poll numbers, aligned with Vox, push the tally to 51 MPs, yet the outcome remains tightly contested
The sense of a right-leaning victory is amplified by persistent chatter from Madrid and its political watchers, but it also reflects the left’s disarray as the election nears. The PSOE, Compromís, and Podemos repeatedly press their preferred messages, though some voters may be asking why Botànic is still invoked when the ballot for 28 May does not bear that label. In 2015, the left sought to end decades of right-leaning governance; in 2019, their aim shifted to consolidating welfare policies. Now the region faces a different set of questions—what the left stands for and how it will translate into votes. The right’s message can seem blunt but direct: dismiss the left. The left, hampered by internal primary disputes, has struggled to present a clear platform. The result is electoral caution rather than bold proposals.
Compromís and Podemos focus more on challenging PSOE than attacking PP, while Puig presents Botànic as if it were still a formal coalition
Ximo Puig faces a maze. If swords are in the air in the Valencian Community, it’s partly because voters seem to trust him less than Pedro Sánchez. The challenge is to showcase social policies while preserving legitimacy for the government in power. Puig keeps returning to Botànic, even as Compromís and Podemos argue they must push harder against the PSOE to survive. The two experts in the coalition, Baldoví and Illueca, appear more comfortable challenging Sánchez than Feijóo or Mazón, while a harsh voice within the PP ranks points to the need for clarity. The latest developments show a left that is divided and uncertain, with the left’s leadership unsure how to proceed as election day approaches. The broader campaign remains unsettled and unpredictable.
The socialist ranks feel a similar tremor. While progress has been achieved in difficult times, key areas like the economy, equity, and housing are managed by partners whose influence remains significant. Focusing the campaign on past performance risks stalling momentum rather than signaling a future trajectory. Within the Socialist party’s leadership, there are doubts about Puig’s Botànic-centric approach and about whether the math holds once the votes are cast. The party’s traditional strongholds, including mayors and MPs, appear diminished as the clock winds down toward the elections.
Alicante’s situation remains a challenge for the Socialists: gains in Valencia could be offset by losses in the south
Masón’s campaign strategy centers on mobilizing voters through visible activism, while the Valencian PP carefully sidesteps Vox in public messaging even though polling suggests Vox’s support remains essential for a governing coalition. Current projections show the PP as the party with the most votes on 28 May, but not yet enough to secure a majority without alliances. The scenario resembles the political dynamics seen in Andalusia or Madrid, where coalitions or alliances shape the final outcome. Mazón’s program appeals to a broad segment of voters, and his ability to avoid committing to a hard stance could keep the question of governance open. Yet a coalition with Vox remains a live possibility, highlighting the delicate balance in the region. As the campaign unfolds, the left’s strategy continues to be debated, with some voters wary of vague promises and others seeking clear red lines. The political landscape in Alicante remains the Socialists’ Achilles heel, illustrating how gains in Valencia may be undone in the southern part of the region. The coming weeks will reveal how the vote ultimately shifts, and whether the left can mount a convincing counter to the right’s momentum.