PP wins, but Botànic resists by a minimum
Valencians facing a tight political cliff as the regional landscape remains finely balanced. The week ahead is expected to settle how the Generalitat will be steered, with just a handful of seats potentially tipping the balance. The latest Invest Group survey published by Prensa Ibérica outlets in the Community suggests an even tighter scenario for the upcoming Sunday elections. A clear majority to guarantee control by one bloc remains elusive, and a margin of one deputy could decide the outcome. The poll hints that the left may keep the regional administration at the helm, yet political currents could shift toward the right in a technical stalemate. The prevailing trend across many polls shows a similar picture. The next government of the Generalitat is literally being decided on a single tile, and the week ahead will determine who will stay in power and who will not.
PP wins, but Botànic resists by a minimum
What factors will decide the result? Ximo Puig might continue to preside over the Generalitat for a third consecutive term, with loyalty and United We Can possibly backing him or with Palau Carlos Mazon playing a role aided by some far-right voices. Participation has held steady, and outside forces keeping influence constant in the Valencian Community have not shifted the dynamic. Mazón seeks to secure Palau’s side while Puig navigates debts that complicate support.
What do the INFORMACIÓN, Levante and Mediterráneo de Castellón surveys say about the 28M elections? First, no candidate nears an absolute or even a sufficient majority. Second, Unidas Podemos, once nearly invisible, appears to regain a small share of representation in the courts. Third, the PP is projected to gain votes and seats in the three provinces that do not form part of the autonomous Parliament, reclaiming a large slice of votes forfeited to Ciudadanos. Their eventual distribution includes votes for the popular forces and Vox. Fourth, turnout around historic levels, above 68 percent, would enable the PSOE to govern in coalition with Compromís and United We Can, replacing the third political power in the Community. This mirrors a strategy seen eight years earlier when a similar right-left split left the top seats to PSOE, Compromís and Podemos. Fifth, if turnout remains at or below 68 percent and Podemos remains in Parliament, the PP could still assemble enough deputies to form a government with Vox, reshaping the balance of power in the Valencian Community.
Botànic reinforces its assessment in a mission marked by the pandemic
Is the far right an autonomous third political force with its own language and culture? It is plausible, especially given the current trajectory toward more conservative positions. The self-placement of surveyed voters in ideological terms is shifting to the right, though the middle remains substantial. If the left does not adjust its assumptions, it risks losing ground to new political dynamics that affect Valencian society, including self-employed workers, civil servants, service staff, and residents from other parts of Spain and the EU. Former expectations for Vox to reach elite status in regions like Andalusia or Galicia seem unlikely in the near horizon, though the local panorama keeps open that possibility. In any case, when the battle comes down to a technical draw or a one-seat difference, polarization tends to advance.
Regional candidates outpace their party’s national leaders
One clear takeaway from the poll is the strong national component influencing regional votes in the Valencian Community. A broad majority approves of the Botànic administration under Puig while judging the opposition as inadequate, yet the decision-making tilt now rests on local dynamics. Puig argues that voting on the right to govern the Valencian Community will occur in this campaign, while other elections will be decided later, in Madrid. Isolating oneself from the overall political climate proves difficult, and Mazón’s strategy to frame the regional elections as a general pre-selection carries both risks and rewards. The campaign enjoys widespread attention, aided directly or indirectly by various parties and national media.
Ximo Puig is the most recognized leader and the most respected Carlos Mazón
The clash between national and regional politics affects perceptions of leadership. Puig’s performance as administrator influences judgments about his leadership, a dynamic that can overshadow the broader historical context. Mazón’s notoriety remains relatively low, yet he still earns respect as a candidate. In politics, recognition matters; voters often decide quickly, and those who feel less familiar with a candidate may rate him higher based on perceived potential. The real test, however, is whether voters will choose to shorten the distance to the adversary by voting decisively for change.
Feijóo gains a solid advantage against Sánchez’s attrition
Voter energy appears to favor right-leaning positions in these regional elections, driven by national debates more than local concerns. The left, meanwhile, faces challenges as government noise and administrative dynamics muddy the field. The critical question becomes how many people will cast a ballot next Sunday and how many will abstain. The right has mobilized its base with the belief that this moment offers a chance to advance solidly. The left faces pressure to maintain momentum in a climate of competing narratives and external distractions. The final result will hinge on whether the electorate turns out and if the turnout falls within historical patterns for the region. The campaign thus tests the resolve of both sides, with the outcome depending on turnout and the ability to convert enthusiasm into votes rather than mere attention.