Election Dynamics in Spain: Feijóo, Sánchez, and the Path to 23J

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One day after a face-to-face meeting with Pedro Sánchez, the majority backed Alberto Núñez Feijóo as the winner of the debate. What effect might this have on voters in the end?

Predicting final outcomes is never certain. Even a clear win can rally some opposition supporters. Yet Monday’s exchange clarified where each side stands for many voters. While Feijóo showcased his strengths, Sánchez exposed certain vulnerabilities.

Feijóo claimed that the crowd enjoyed the direct clash. Might this open the door to more dialogue?

Further discussion isn’t required by default. A second debate was proposed, with Sánchez’s team present and even extended by letter, but Pedro Sánchez declined. A four-way discussion highlighted Yolanda Díaz’s implication that Sánchez could govern with limited backing. If, in a rare but possible scenario, Sánchez could form a government again, he would need to assemble Esquerra, the PNV, Bildu, and Unidas Podemos in a coalition.

Recent polls show a small lead for PSOE ahead of 23J. Does that worry the PP?

The key is achieving a quorum through solid performance. No poll foresees a PSOE victory in these elections. When Feijóo offered support to Sánchez during the winner’s exchange, Sánchez declined, signaling uncertainty about the outcome. As a result, three paths remain: a PP government on its own, a PP government with PSOE abstaining or Vox abstaining, and a potential stalemate.

In the Community of Valencia and other regions, there are arrangements with Vox that could shape the final result, but the overall outcome remains unsettled.

As the elections approach, it’s anticipated that PP will secure more seats than PSOE and Sumar combined. In that case, abstaining from PSOE or Vox could be enough for the PP to govern.

In Murcia, Vox has pressed to join the administration with the PP. What would happen if this pattern repeats at the national level?

As asked of Pedro Sánchez on Monday, the aim is that if the PP wins, the PSOE could form a government more easily on its own. If the PSOE fears Vox’s presence, it could consider strategies to minimize it. It would be odd for the PSOE to warn about Vox’s influence and then miss a chance to enable a PP-led government after the elections.

Was abstention from the party with the most votes not seen in Extremadura either?

No, not in Valencia previously either. The discussion centers on the Spanish Government. A winner in local or regional elections may govern, but the national government remains pivotal. Everything matters, yet the Spanish Government is crucial enough to uphold the tradition that the winner rules.

Do deals with Vox in regions like Valencia penalize the party?

It’s surprising how often the focus lands on Vox while deals with Bildu receive less scrutiny for the PSOE. The PSOE could face consequences for such negotiations, while there would be a chance for the PP to govern on its own.

What was the implication of the PP’s stance when it came to cases in the Valencian Parliament or Elche, including accusations against Vox and debates over sexist violence and flags?

The speaker voiced strong disagreement with those displays of insensitivity. A clear message was sent about the inappropriateness of certain actions.

What is the PP’s position on sexist violence?

The party opposed a strict reading of the law known as “Only yes is yes,” supported amendments to that law, and criticized the closure of nine gender-based violence courts in the Community of Valencia. A national initiative on the Pact Against Gender-Based Violence has been highlighted repeatedly. When asked about the PP’s stance on sexist violence, the response is that silence about crimes is unacceptable.

Should gender violence be described as domestic violence instead?

Gender violence remains recognized as sexist violence. That understanding endures.

What are the red lines for the PP after 23J?

Anyone who saw Monday’s debate and the paper showing the PP offering to run the PSOE on the top-voted list knows what is on the table. For the rest of the campaign, the PP intends to seek votes to govern alone. If PSOE leaders won’t back the PP so it can govern without Vox, voters may be asked to support the PP to avoid Vox influence in government.

Is the treatment of Alicante in national budgets or infrastructure a persistent issue? What is the PP’s plan for that province?

Let Alicante’s role in national politics matter again. The region has long felt overlooked by Madrid. The current leadership in Alicante could shift priorities. The list of perceived oversights during the PSPV and Compromís administrations is lengthy, with Chamartín station often cited as a symbol of neglect. Years ago a Valencian minister decided that trains from Alicante and Valencia should go to Chamartín, and progress to adapt that station has been slow. The journey to Chamartín remained challenging.

What is the PP’s approach to water policy?

Water policy must meet current needs. Spain cannot operate without a real water map, and basins must be interconnected. It is unacceptable to give Portugal more water than agreed and to leave agriculture out of step with available water. A practical plan is needed so water reaches every region and sector.

Will the interrupted Tajo-Segura transfers be resumed?

Yes, they will be resumed.

What is the outlook for 23J?

Ideally, the candidate would not be on vacation. If July 24 finds the party taking a break, the PP and Spain will have performed poorly.

What could happen at the national level if the PP loses?

The scenario isn’t about a loss but the size of the victory. The goal is a solid majority that allows governance without compromising with Vox.

Do you consider yourself a foreign minister?

No. The aim is to support Feijóo in whatever role he chooses and to assist him as needed.

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