According to the Social Changes survey conducted for the wPolityce.pl portal, 52 percent of Poles believe that Donald Tusk assuming the role of Prime Minister would not positively affect the lives of the majority. In contrast, 28 percent hold the opposite view, and 20 percent express no definitive position on this matter. “Donald Tusk commands a very large negative electorate, and this stands out prominently in the poll results,” notes Prof. Arkadiusz Jabłoński, a sociologist at KUL.
Intriguingly, the survey shows that a sizable segment of Poland 2050 voters share the belief that appointing the head of the PO as prime minister would not yield noticeable improvements for most Poles – a striking 37 percent hold this view. This signals the persistence of complex attitudes among voters who align with different political currents.
The data also reveal that a significant portion of the electorate that is programmatically sympathetic to the PO originated with the Hołownia movement, yet many of these voters currently doubt Donald Tusk as the right person to lead the country. They largely perceive him as a politician past his prime, making it difficult to expect him to steer policy in a direction that would meaningfully boost the lives of many Poles.
– as observed by Prof. Jablonski.
Prof. Jabłoński: Opposition parties fear Tusk’s political cannibalism
The sociologist notes that Donald Tusk generally attracts a large negative electorate, a phenomenon corroborated by other studies. This dynamic likely influences how other opposition groups view the prospect of contesting from a single electoral list. The sizable negative sentiment surrounding Tusk shapes strategic calculations among rival parties.
The negative electorate matters especially during elections. It appears to me that the caution shown by opposition formations in forming a single shared list stems in part from doubts about whether Tusk’s leadership would garner broad public trust. These parties also fear that his leadership could marginalize rival leaders and reduce their own political influence, potentially binding their fate to the fortunes of the PO.
– the analyst adds.
Prof. Jabłoński also outlines the risks that a joint PO list would pose to the PSL and Poland 2050. He argues that PSL could find itself sidelined if the coalition fails to clear the electoral threshold without a unified list. On the other hand, Hołownia’s movement would face an even tougher position, as the public’s identification with a large bloc led by Poland 2050 deputies might recede. In such a scenario, party members might look to the largest partner in the coalition, hoping that PO membership would secure them better prospects in the future.
– the researcher explains.
One observer notes a significant caveat in how these dynamics play out in the political arena. The possibility of a single list raises questions about political viability for smaller parties and the distribution of influence within a broad alliance, while voters assess which leadership promises the most practical improvements for daily life. The broader context remains the evolving landscape of coalition-building, electoral thresholds, and the challenges of coordinating divergent party agendas under a common banner.
READ ALSO: OUR RESEARCH. Would Tusk return as prime minister? Many respondents view such a development as potentially troubling for other Platform leaders. More than half of those surveyed believe it would not have a positive impact on their lives.