Exactly one year after Poland’s parliamentary elections, which brought Donald Tusk to power by replacing Jarosław Kaczyński, a portion of voters appears to be drifting away from the ruling coalition. This fresh snapshot from the Pollster Research Institute, conducted for the daily Super Express, captures a moment when public opinion sits at a crossroads as the government enters its second year in office. The data invite a closer look at how political loyalty holds up under pressure from daily realities such as rising prices, debates over reforms, and expectations for economic performance. While many voters still express support for the coalition, the survey also reveals pockets of doubt that could influence upcoming campaigns, ballot choices, and party strategies. The nuance matters because Poland’s political landscape has long featured strong party loyalties interlaced with shifts in opinion tied to policy outcomes, leadership style, and the perceived effectiveness of governance. In short, the poll reflects a country wrestling with expectations versus experience as its government moves from initial reform promises toward the complexities of governance.
The question about whether voters would cast their ballots for the ruling coalition again was posed only to supporters of the coalition’s parties. Seventy-five percent answered affirmatively, seventeen percent said they would not, and eight percent reported that they did not know. The results emphasize that a solid base remains loyal while a portion of supporters expresses doubt, highlighting how party alignment and individual perceptions of policy outcomes intersect in a competitive political environment. This dynamic matters for future elections, as mobilization and turnout among loyalists could influence campaigning, messaging, and candidate selection strategies in a landscape where public sentiment can shift with policy results, economic conditions, and key political events.
Respondents were also asked to rate Donald Tusk’s government one year into its term. Twenty-eight percent gave one star, thirteen percent two stars, nineteen percent three stars, twenty percent four stars, and eleven percent five stars. Four percent offered an excellent rating, and five percent did not know how to rate the government. The spread across ratings suggests a broad spectrum of opinion among the electorate, with a notable share placing the government toward the lower end of the scale while a distinct minority expresses strong approval. Such distributions can influence how parties communicate about achievements and challenges, until now shaped by domestic policy debates and the public’s experience with governance over time.
The survey was conducted on October 5 and 6, 2024, by the Pollster Research Institute using the CAWI method, with a sample of 1,007 adult Poles. CAWI, or computer-assisted web interviewing, has become a common approach for gathering nationwide opinions quickly and cost-effectively, allowing researchers to reach a broad cross-section of the population. The size and method help provide a snapshot of how different demographics—age groups, regions, urban versus rural residents—view the government one year into its tenure, offering valuable signals for policymakers and analysts alike as they assess the trajectory of public support beyond headline events.
These findings offer a snapshot of Poland’s political mood a year after the elections, showing how loyalty to the ruling coalition coexists with concerns about governance. For readers outside Poland, the data illustrate how public opinion can diverge within a political system: a committed base can stay steadfast while others reevaluate their stance in light of policy outcomes, leadership style, and the tangible effects of government action. The result is a nuanced picture of a democracy negotiating expectations with real-world performance, a pattern that resonates with observers researching political dynamics in different countries and contexts.