Election fever surfaces now and then. The tug of war between the PSOE and the PP has colored politics in Spain since the birth of democracy, spanning central, regional, and autonomous levels, even when coalitions with other parties shaped governance in recent years. Yet analysts warn that the party-cycle shift evident in the latest regional vote, which reverberated through the Generalitat, disrupted old plans as national tensions crowded out local administration.
A quick look at a long-running chart of vote shares in the Valencian Community from 1977 to today reveals a steady alternation between PSOE and PP since the fall of the historic center party, UCD, led by Adolfo Suárez. Support for the Socialists peaked in 1982 during Felipe González’s rise to prime minister, and a year later their momentum helped Joan Lerma take the Generalitat. That level of backing stayed relatively high until González’s popularity waned and the first big PP turnaround came into view.
Eduardo Zaplana became the first Valencian leader to command an absolute majority in 1995, and a year later José María Aznar arrived in the national government after strong opposition to the Socialists. The PP enjoyed a lengthy period of influence in the Community, with Zaplana securing another absolute majority in 1999 and passing the baton to José Luis Olivas at the end of that term, as Olivas took on a national ministerial post. Francisco Camps then scored three consecutive victories in 2003, 2007, and 2011. The 2011 milestone marked the last sustained peak of PP support in the Valencian Community and coincided with Mariano Rajoy’s national ascent. At that time, the PSOE faced internal strife over national issues as José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s presidency endured two successive terms after the 2004 victory, amid conflict over the Iraq War and the Madrid train bombings, shaping broader political dynamics.
Amid all this, the PSOE did not allow a Generalitat return but did gain a modest resurgence in Valencian support linked to Zapatero’s arrival at the national stage.
The PP’s sharpest setback came with Camps’s resignation, which, despite receiving a smaller vote share, was linked in public perception to corruption scandals involving the party. Camps returned to leadership later, with Ximo Puig forming a new government in 2015 thanks to the Botànic pact, later renewed by the Compromís and Podemos coalition. That alliance persisted for four years, with Pedro Sánchez leading the national government from 2018 and the Socialists maintaining a polling edge locally.
Recent developments, culminating in the May 28 election, point to a renewed political cycle that experts say could enable a shift in Valencian leadership under Carlos Mazón. Analysts such as sociologist Carlos Gómez Gil of the University of Alicante argue that the region’s locality and autonomy present a surprising departure from the usual determinants of results. He notes that this election was shaped less by proximity or local issues and more by national dynamics, a torrent of public discourse and unprecedented political toxicity that altered voting behavior. [UA study, 2024]
Gómez Gil stresses that voters treated the administration, candidate proposals, and local track record as a kind of political trump card. He compares the climate to a era of dramatic national events, where traditional lines blurred and statements took on harsh overtones. He adds that, for the first time, a strong autonomous administration did not automatically translate into continued support for the same ruler. [UA analysis, 2024]
For the University’s analysts, this is a fresh phenomenon warranting careful study. They observe that the right appears to move with a natural ease in the current climate, while left-leaning formations struggle to interpret the shifts and often find themselves reacting from a distance. The dynamic is likened to patterns seen in other European contexts, where political reconfigurations unfold rapidly and voters choose based on new coordinates rather than fixed loyalties. [UMH commentary, 2024]
A similar assessment comes from Victoria Rodríguez, a political science professor at the Miguel Hernández University in Elche. She acknowledges the national-wide political climate had a pronounced ripple effect on local voting, and she notes that the PP’s strategy of anti-party voting resonated in central government sentiment. She also observes that Ciudadanos’ vote share reflects strategic missteps by Albert Rivera rather than ground-level campaigning. Rodríguez adds that Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s more moderate stance could help the PP nationally, but more support would be required to win broader elections. [UMH perspective, 2024]
Rodríguez further points to the collapse of Podemos as a decisive factor in these elections, arguing that distrust at the national level translated into weaker support locally. She emphasizes that Podemos’ decline reshaped the political landscape without necessarily derailing the Generalitat’s trajectory. [UMH analysis, 2024]
Looking ahead, Rodríguez foresees a trend toward non-ideological voting, where voters favor pragmatic, rational choices over rigid ideological lines. She believes a significant shift could be on the horizon, with Vox showing potential growth while Ciudadanos faces an uncertain path. The central takeaway is that voters are signaling a nuanced, issue-driven calculus rather than straightforward party allegiance. [UMH forecast, 2024]