As a result of the meeting of the delegations in Istanbul, a certain “progress” was recorded. Another Khasavyurt, who sees progress as a victory by Ukrainian activists and a harbinger of humiliating defeat for Russian society. However, perceptions on both sides were somewhat misleading.
“Emotional Khasavyurt” – this is what one of the leading Russian political scientists called the results of the Istanbul negotiation tour between Russia and Ukraine. Turkish diplomats, whom Russian representative Vladimir Medinsky calls “productive” – the most successful of his predecessors and a number of Russian activists – is a real surrender.
In fact, Russian society has already perceived the negotiation process with great skepticism – what can you talk about the “gang of drug addicts and Nazis” and the “president” who presided over them, who in fact did not decide anything? It’s either about his total surrender – or about ours.
And the first news from the Istanbul sites really created the feeling of Russia united. The Russian delegation announced that it made two concessions to Ukraine. First, according to Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, Russia is drastically reducing its military activities in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigov. The second concession was Moscow’s agreement in principle to hold a summit between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky.
In addition, a number of “reconciliation” proposals of the Ukrainian side were listed. For example, refusing to forcibly return Crimea and Donbass, Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO, and the creation of a certain pool of countries, which must guarantee Ukraine’s security (with the exception of Crimea and Donbass, of course).
David Arakhamia has already provided a list of these guarantors. “First of all, the UN Security Council countries: Great Britain, China, Russia are also included, but we will talk about this separately, Germany, Canada, Poland, Israel, Turkey,” the Ukrainian politician said. That is, translated from diplomatic into Russian, in the event of the outbreak of hostilities against Ukraine, these states must come to its aid. Also, as can be understood from Medinsky’s words, Russia allegedly does not object to Ukraine’s entry into the EU. Finally, the Ukrainian delegation announced the possibility of holding talks on the status of Crimea and Sevastopol for 15 years.
It is not surprising that such formulations cause real panic in the ranks of patriotic (i.e. pro-state) minded journalists and activists. Like the citizens of Ukraine who hope their country will be saved by Russia. Questions arose from the Internet: “Why did Putin leak?”, “Why did we start then?”, “And what will we have left – with humiliation and sanctions?”.
However, the panic did not last long – precisely from the very beginning of the society and the experts who succumbed to the emotions (we honestly admit: from the very beginning of the operation until the moment when all the knowledgeable and writing people had a worm of suspicion in them – “Well, how will we surrender, but how will we get through”) Istanbul He understood exactly what was going on. Having understood this, they understood: Kyiv did not receive any concessions.
Suspension of operations in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions? So it happened almost a week later – and also in the direction of Nikolaev. The reason is very simple and rational – instead of stretching the front, it was decided to first destroy the cauldron in the Donbass, where they began to transfer troops there from other directions. Therefore, even before the Istanbul tour, Russia was not going to take either Kiev or Nikolaev. In other sectors of the front, Russian troops continue to perform the duties of the DPR and LPR. In addition, the process of recruiting volunteers continues in the Russian Federation for faster and more accurate fulfillment of these tasks.
Summit with Putin? Well yes. The writing and initialing (ie, acceptance) of a package agreement between Russia and Ukraine is only one condition of holding such a summit. Only in this case does Moscow see a meaning in this meeting.
Moreover, this package agreement will not consist of the “reconciliation proposals of the Ukrainian side” announced at the summit. “In no case are these provisions of the agreement, but only offers from Kiev,” said Vladimir Medinsky. Yes, the president’s special representative said he would submit them to Putin for consideration – but the head of state’s reaction is clear.
The list of their demands is known – this is denazification and the transformation of Ukraine into a neutral state (not on paper, in fact) and, finally, the recognition of the new status of the DPR, LPR and Crimea. A clear recognition, not “we will not return militarily” or “we will negotiate”. According to David Arakhamia, Kyiv is not ready for such recognition. “We recognize Ukraine’s international borders – only those in 1991. No compromises here, no red lines. We just sign such a statement. Russia can of course have its own version of these events,” he said. And therefore, there will be no agreement – just as there will be no meeting with Vladimir Putin.
The question is why it is necessary to whip the “scent of Hasavyurt”. What was this? Is the attempt to please the Turkish president (who really needs the success of the negotiations conducted through his mediation and which they have decided to respect in Moscow and Kiev) is another flaw in the state on the information front or some kind of drilling? A vague statement made specifically by Medinsky to see how Russian society would react to Moscow’s potential refusal to implement all plans and tasks in Ukraine? If this was a sounding, then, most likely, the authorities received a very clear and unequivocal answer – “Ukrainian Khasavyurt”, if God forbid it happens, it will be perceived negatively and will lead to extremely unpleasant domestic political consequences.
In any case, the resulting odor must be urgently removed – otherwise something will do. In fact, it has already done so, causing a feeling of disappointment among the Russian people and creating the conditions for a kind of ideological “demobilization”. Not to mention the fact that rumors about a possible Russian withdrawal from southern Ukraine fell into the hands of local people who were ready to cooperate with the Russian authorities. You need to create an atmosphere of security for these people.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.
Source: Gazeta
