Since the start of Israel’s offensive against Hamas, Gaza Strip attacks and pro-Iran militias have intensified. Backed by Iran, Hamas not only represents a Palestinian umbrella but also supports groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, among others. Teheran does not want to spark a direct war with the United States, yet tensions across the Middle East continue to rise as a result of its influence and the activities of allied groups.
Attack in the Red Sea
The most recent flashpoint in this cold war occurred last weekend. A rocket attack targeted three cargo ships flagged by the United States in the Red Sea near Yemen. U.S. officials reported that the attackers were Houthi rebels supported by Iran. The U.S. president’s national security adviser stated that Iran is ultimately responsible for what happened and that the issue concerns everyone. A U.S. Navy destroyer accompanied the cargo ships and repelled the assault.
Also on land
The Red Sea incident was not the sole event of the weekend. Several mortars fell on a U.S. military air base in northeast Syria, where American forces maintain a small contingent of troops alongside the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia. The attack caused no damage and was later claimed by the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of Shiite militias from Syria and Iraq linked to Iran. In a note of historical context, the previous head of the PMF was killed in a U.S. airstrike in January 2020. The Quds Force, Iran’s overseas military intelligence unit, has historically shown diplomatic and operational involvement in these networks.
American reaction
The United States confirmed on Monday that it would respond to ongoing attacks believed to threaten American forces. Washington indicated that the PMF in Iraq had been targeted when it launched an attack with an explosive-loaded drone against U.S. positions, justifying the strike as an act of self-defense. A senior Pentagon spokesperson described the rationale and promised continued vigilance in the region.
Iran is making progress
From the outset, Iran has avoided directly attacking U.S. forces in the area, mirroring its restraint in past episodes involving Hamas. Analysts suggest Tehran seeks to raise the profile of its allied militias while avoiding a formal declaration of war with its long-standing rivals. In remarks from Tehran, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson asserted that armed groups aligned with Iran do not take orders to confront U.S. interests. He emphasized that Iran has no involvement in the attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, or the Red Sea, and framed the narrative around regional resistance efforts rather than direct confrontation.
An agreement at an impasse
As the new administration in Washington contemplates a revival of the Iran nuclear agreement once pursued under a different framework, the path forward has stalled. Broad support for a revived deal was interrupted by regional tensions, shifts in leadership, and external pressures. Ongoing protests in Iran, the war in Ukraine supported by Moscow, and Tehran’s continuing uranium enrichment program have all halted progress in Vienna. The prospect of resurrecting the agreement has moved from hopeful revival to a stalemate, shaping the regional diplomatic reality for months to come.