Axis of Resistance
Since the Hamas attack on October 7 and the ensuing war, Tehran has leveraged its regional network to organize and encourage attacks against Israeli and American positions across the Middle East. Its influence extends beyond Israel and Palestine to operations in the Red Sea, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. The regime in Tehran has been careful not to enter a full-scale direct war with two global rivals, Tel Aviv and Washington, preferring to mobilize allied groups to pursue its interests through proxy actions.
The result is a sprawling umbrella of affiliated militias that Iran has nurtured over the last two decades. This strategy allows Tehran to influence numerous conflicts without declaring itself a direct combatant. The constellation of actors—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Palestine, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen—ties together what many observers call the Resistance Axis. Since the Gaza conflict intensified, both Hashd al-Shaabi and the Houthis have engaged in ongoing drone and mortar attacks against American forces and commercial shipping, provoking retaliatory strikes by Washington against militia assets in Iraq and Yemen (Source: regional security briefings).
A regional power with feet of clay
Iran seeks to project influence across the Middle East, building a network of militias and cultivating ties with influential regional states. The architect of this expansionist posture is widely identified as Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force, Iran’s elite overseas military arm. Soleimani’s leadership left a lasting imprint on Tehran’s outward strategy, even after his death in January 2020 (Source: military analysis reports).
In parallel, Iran’s nuclear program continues to be a focal point of international scrutiny. Iran has pursued uranium enrichment with the stated aim of developing a weapons capability, with reports indicating substantial enrichment levels. The international community, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, has closely monitored Tehran’s nuclear activities, which remain a point of tense diplomacy and strategic calculation (Source: IAEA status assessments).
These developments have real economic and political consequences. Iran’s economy remains tightly linked to Western sanctions and global energy markets, with periods of heightened pressure affecting growth and investment. Domestic opinions and political stability are shaped by repression of dissent and periodic protests, such as those that emerged after major demonstrations, underscoring how internal dynamics interact with regional ambitions (Source: economic and human rights analyses).
Tension and confusion in the Middle East
External pressures are mounting as Iran’s allied militias threaten commercial and maritime routes. Yemen’s Houthis, acting in concert with Tehran, have challenged navigation through strategic channels, complicating global trade routes and prompting responses from international actors. These actions influence broader shipping lanes, with potential ripple effects on Asia, Europe, and Africa, including the Suez Canal corridor (Source: strategic transportation analyses).
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has warned that regional crises and ongoing resistance operations will persist until Israeli actions in Gaza end, highlighting the way regional conflicts intertwine with broader political messaging and diplomacy (Source: foreign ministry briefings).
Attacks, responses and counter-responses
Early January marked a notable shift when an Islamic State ceremony in Kerman, commemorating the death of Qassem Soleimani, saw deadly violence that compelled Tehran to reflect on how to respond more directly. In the ensuing period, as Israel intensified its Gaza operation, Tehran reportedly conducted a series of retaliatory strikes, including ballistic missiles launched toward targets in northern Syria, alleged bases in northern Iraq, and Baloch militia groups near Pakistan. Islamabad responded with counter-strikes on Baloch elements inside Iranian territory, illustrating how regional security actions can escalate and provoke wider engagement (Source: conflict reports).
Experts note that such incidents raise the odds of broader involvement by Iran, even as its stated goal remains defending its own security while signaling its willingness to retaliate for perceived aggression. The broader aim is to project strength and deter perceived threats, while avoiding open, full-scale warfare (Source: geopolitical analyses).
Unlimited words and rhetoric
Iran’s leadership often stresses sovereignty and territorial integrity while arguing that no neighbor should dictate regional outcomes. Officials have asserted that Tehran will defend itself decisively against any attack, underscoring a message that resilience and rapid response will be central to its security posture. The language reflects a blend of deterrence, strategic signaling, and insistence on political sovereignty in a volatile regional environment (Source: official statements and policy reviews).