Withdrawal of US-led Coalition from Iraq Sparks Regional Tensions and Strategic Reassessment

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Iraqi officials have announced the start of the withdrawal process for the US-led International Military Coalition from the country, as reported by Reuters. The statement cited the office of Prime Minister Mohammed Shiite al-Sudani.

There are currently about 900 American soldiers stationed in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq. The United States says its forces are advising and assisting local partners to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State (IS), which seized large portions of both nations in 2014.

Al-Sudani’s remarks on foreign troop withdrawal came a day after a US strike in Baghdad that killed Mushtaqa al-Jawari, known as Abu Taqwa, the commander of the Harakat An-Nujaba militia. The prime minister faces influence from powerful Shiite blocs, and some allied groups form a substantial force within his ruling coalition. Iraqi and Syrian militias have condemned Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip and have placed some blame on the United States for the current crisis. Local factions had urged al-Sudani to withdraw the coalition from Iraq.

A source close to the prime minister told Reuters that he faces intense pressure from influential Shiite parties. The stated aim of the government is to reassure those factions.

The government’s message said, “The government is identifying a date to establish a bilateral committee to take steps that permanently end the presence of International Coalition forces in Iraq.” A government official told Reuters that the commission will involve representatives of the International Coalition as well.

In the statement, al-Sudani emphasized a firm position to end the coalition’s presence once the conditions that justified it have ceased.

American Strike

On January 4, a drone targeted the militia’s headquarters in Baghdad. Abu Taqwa, the Harakat al-Nujaba commander, and one fighter were killed. Iraqi forces blamed the International Coalition for the attack, while the Pentagon confirmed that two members of the group were killed in response to American actions. Since the resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, US troops in Syria have faced regular attacks claimed by Iraqi Shiite groups.

According to a source from the Şafak organization, six more people were injured, including the intelligence commander of the popular militia.

Reuters learned that, initially, the Biden administration did not plan to respond to the spate of attacks in Iraq due to concerns about backlash. However, the Iraqi government’s inability to rein in militias pushed Washington toward a more forceful approach. Officials said the latest strike targeted Mushtaq al-Jawari, whom the Pentagon described as responsible for attacks on American personnel.

Despite that, the Iraqi government characterized the killed individual as a member of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a group formed in 2014 to confront IS. Later, authorities recognized the PMF as an official security entity. The Pentagon did not comment on the Iraqi position.

What Will the Withdrawal of US Troops from Iraq Lead To?

While US forces remain in Iraq, they continue to supply their northern Syria bases. Analysts warn that a withdrawal from Iraq could complicate U.S. logistics for the Syrian bases, potentially forcing Washington to rethink its presence in the region.

In July 2023, US command shifted more equipment and logistics from Iraq to Syria. According to the Syrian daily Al-Watan, a large convoy moved through the Al-Walid border crossing into Hasakah province in the northeast.

The publication noted that the Syrian province of Hasakah and nearby Deir ez-Zor now host a larger US footprint, with numbers rising from about 500 to 1,500 since mid-July. Some personnel assist the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces with training, others guard airports and energy sites across Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor. Since 2015, the US military has established nine bases in the region.

Two years earlier, the Syrian news agency SANA alleged that US forces were facilitating oil smuggling in Syria to sell in Iraq and Turkey. Reports claim American personnel transported military cargo, refrigerators, and tanks from Iraq into Syria as part of a broader fight against IS, a practice said to harm Syria’s economy and hinder reconstruction.

Dmitry Polyansky, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, claimed that Americans had diverted Syria’s natural resources in 2022. He urged the UN to address what he described as an environmental disaster tied to US activity in Northeast Syria, where he argued oil was being illicitly exploited.

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