Iran, long identified as Hamas’ principal international ally, welcomed the ceasefire announced last night between Gaza’s militants and Israel, which is slated to take effect on Sunday. The move underscores Tehran’s influence in a web of allied militias across the region and signals how the Gaza crisis continues to shape regional alignments.
Hamas, along with other regional groups such as Hizballah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq, forms part of the Axis of Resistance, a network of militias backed by Tehran. Through this bloc, Iran seeks to balance its strategic rivals in the region, notably Israel and the United States, while projecting influence far beyond its borders.
“The end of the war in Gaza and the imposition of a ceasefire against the Zionist regime marks a clear victory for Palestine and a greater defeat for the Zionists,” read a statement from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite political-military body that answers directly to Iran’s religious leadership. (Attribution: IRGC)
The Revolutionary Guard is Iran’s core military and political force and operates under the authority of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“Our resistance remains alive, strong and bright. It has even more faith than before in the divine promise to liberate the Al Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem from the Zionist occupation,” the statement continued. “The annals will record that a force once killed thousands of children and women in Gaza. The world will recognize that it was the Palestinian resistance and the Axis of Resistance — another term for the Axis of Resistance — that compelled the Zionist regime to withdraw,” wrote Khamenei on his X account this Thursday. (Attribution: Khamenei statement via IRGC release)
An Axis in Decline
The fifteen months of Israeli offensives against Gaza—and the autumn 2024 fighting in southern Lebanon—have inflicted heavy damage on the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance. Hamas and Hizballah, the two largest groups within the umbrella of militias allied to Tehran, have faced significant setbacks, with reports of high casualties and leadership pressures from Israeli strikes. There are claims that Ismail Haniyeh, the former political leader of Hamas, was killed in Tehran last summer, highlighting the volatility of the bloc’s leadership channels.
In Syria, the Assad regime, loyal to Tehran, served as a land corridor for sending military materiel and financial support to the Lebanese militia. In December, however, Assad faced a difficult display of pressure and reportedly recalibrated his position in the face of regional shifts, even as some factions on the ground argued that Tehran’s influence remained a decisive factor. The Axis of Resistance, conceived in the 1990s and 2000s by the general who founded a broad network of Iranian-backed groups, has become visibly weaker in the current balance of power. (Attribution: regional dynamics analysis)
“There seems to be an emotionally charged sense of triumph among our enemies. But they should know that Iran, and especially its missile system, is stronger than it has ever been,” stated Hossein Salami, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, in remarks circulated in the past week. This emphasis on military capacity underscores Iran’s intent to maintain leverage despite mounting regional challenges. (Attribution: IRGC remarks via official channels)