Historically, the line has been clear: Iran has never developed nuclear weapons, and it will not, because as the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated two decades ago, doing so would violate the precepts of Islam. Iran is an Islamic Republic, a theocracy in which the head of state is also the religious leader.
But today is different. Iran, increasingly boxed in in the Middle East by Israel’s military advances in Palestine and Lebanon against Tehran’s two main allied militias, Hizballah and Hamas, appears more willing than ever to rethink its stance on the bomb.
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections does not help: Tehran’s power circles fear a return to a “maximum pressure” approach toward Iran.
“High-ranking officials’ statements about the possibility of militarizing Iran’s nuclear program are increasingly direct and frequent,” explains Hamideza Azizi, an Iranian scholar and a member of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “The debate over the need for a deterrence capability has become routine in the Iranian media, and this is a clear sign of a shift in the official discourse given how tightly the government controls all media,” Azizi adds.
The “Terrorist Enemy”
The debate about Iran’s nuclear program and the atomic bomb is not new, but voices grew louder from 2018 onward when the then-president of the United States, Donald Trump, pulled out of the nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama, which had committed Iran to using its program solely for peaceful purposes.
When Trump pulled out, everything changed. Iran began enriching uranium, a necessary step toward weaponization. Today, Tehran possesses uranium enriched to 60%, a short leap in time from the 90% needed to arm a bomb. Iran is now at the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, as are the United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Israel, though never openly admitting it, is also believed to possess nuclear weapons.
“The sacred Qur’an commands us to increase our power to the maximum to deter our enemies and thereby create a deterrent armed force. The Iranian nation must possess any weapon that our enemies, the United States and Israel, also possess,” said parliamentarian Mahmud Nabavian this week, referring—though without naming it—to the nuclear weapon.
“The Gaza conflict, no longer confined to the Strip, is the main driver of the shift in Iran’s discourse on its nuclear program. In the past, Iran’s deterrence capacity was defined by its doctrine of the ‘advanced defense’: the presence and reinforcement of regional militias like Hizballah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza,” Azizi notes.
Following Israeli strikes on leadership and infrastructure, these groups have been severely damaged and weakened. “There is a growing perception in Tehran that achieving a nuclear parity—the ability to match an atomic arsenal—is the only real deterrent against the enemy,” the expert adds.
Risks and Preventive Strikes
Crossing the threshold into a nuclear power carries obvious risks. “The extensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—whose director, Rafael Grossi, was in Tehran last week—coupled with the penetration of Israeli intelligence into Iran, suggest that any attempt to develop a weapon would likely be detected immediately. In that case, Israel and possibly the United States could take preventive measures,” Azizi notes.
This alleged attack has already occurred, according to certain accounts. “There is no secret. There is a specific component of Iran’s nuclear program that was the target of the attack,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the bombing of three Iranian bases on October 26 that reportedly killed four soldiers. Netanyahu offered few details about which components were targeted.
“In this context, a Trump re-election would likely raise regional tensions and push Iran to accelerate its progress toward weaponizing its nuclear program,” Azizi explains. “Trump’s strong support for Israel, particularly Netanyahu’s government, could push Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Such action would, in turn, reinforce Tehran’s determination to develop nuclear weapons.”