France’s National Assembly has fractured into three major blocs. The largest is the left bloc, winner of the legislative vote this Sunday with the New Popular Front. The second is Emmanuel Macron’s center-right grouping, Together. It holds up better than expected against the challenge he himself sparked. The third, surprisingly, is the far-right bloc of the National Rally, which has faced a solid Republican cordon sanitaire from opponents.
France learns two lessons tonight: the barrier against the far right remains unbreached for Marine Le Pen’s allies for now, and the price is an unprecedented parliamentary division masked by emergency coalitions that unite ideologies that only share one thing in common: a firm rejection of right-wing populism.
The country now confronts a political knot it has little experience untangling. It must apply a fluid parliamentary geometry, one it is not used to, and forge right- and left-leaning alliances capable of supporting a prime minister (designated by the president) and a government that can survive motions of no confidence for at least a year until fresh elections can be called.
The current prime minister, Gabriel Attal, has already announced his intention to resign to the president tomorrow. The president will then propose a new candidate to form a government in the lower house. The question is whom to choose among the long list of parties. The aim is to wait for the National Assembly to make the necessary decisions, signaling a form of governing coalition that achieves an absolute majority (289 seats) or close to it, according to the Elíseo precinct.
Yet this is not straightforward. The New Popular Front, reported by early surveys to win somewhere between 180 and 215 seats out of 577, is a left-wing electoral coalition made up of disparate parties: the Socialist Party, Ecolo, the Communist Party, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, a pariah on the center-right spectrum. Together is the presidential slate, gathering Horizons, MoDem, and Renaissance, the latter being Macron’s movement. The National Rally sits with roughly 120 to 150 seats, while Les Républicains hover around 57 to 67. A handful of smaller groups are also present.
Jointly, Together and La France Insoumise are like oil and water; they don’t mix easily. Will Mélenchon’s forces be excluded from a future coalition? Early seat estimates suggest a viable path. Without La France Insoumise, the New Popular Front could hold around 104 to 124 seats. If the pro-Mélenchon bloc manages to secure 150 to 170 seats from Together, a majority might still be within reach. Another possibility is a reasonable majority formed by the New Popular Front in alliance with the Republicans. Alternatively, a technocratic consensus government could be proposed.
Ciotti now condemns Le Pen’s forces
The night has produced speeches that could go down in history. One such moment came from Éric Ciotti, whose unilateral decision to back the National Rally triggered a rupture within his own party, Les Républicains. Tonight he pivoted again. He opened with the line that a broad clarification has yielded broad uncertainty. He warned that a lack of majority and governance could bring grave dangers to the French people, and he urged an agreement that stabilizes the political situation, explicitly excluding cooperation with either the National Rally or La France Insoumise.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon spoke first, appearing eager to seize the night’s apparent victory. He is not the spokesperson or leader of the New Popular Front. He stepped onto the balcony to cheers from his supporters. The vote breakdown suggests that Insoumise supporters control a large share of the bloc’s seats, but not an overwhelming majority. Roughly 68 to 74 seats belong to La France Insoumise, about 63 to 69 to the Socialist Party, 32 to 36 to the ecologists, and 10 to 12 to the Communists, who do not always see eye to eye with Mélenchon.
The former Socialist president François Hollande has won a seat as a deputy. Will he be the chosen one to lead the government? Tonight he reiterated that he is not a candidate for the top post, saying he does not feel that moment has arrived yet.
The evening’s biggest disappointment for observers has been the National Rally’s candidate, Jordan Bardella. He denounced the coalition as an unworthy alliance that prevents victory and pushes France toward the far left. He framed the situation as a display of opposition that would remain in parliament rather than govern. The question remains whether large coalitions will leave room for a robust opposition that can critique the government while the system experiments with a variable-geometry approach.