The first round of the legislative elections in France produced a historic win for the far right, a result that could translate into a parliamentary majority when votes are finally counted this coming Sunday. In the second round, the 577 seats will be allocated, and the party that wins in each constituency takes the seat. Only those parties that secured more than 12.5 percent of the vote in a constituency advance to the second round.
In many districts, the July 7 contest pits Marine Le Pen’s National Rally against the New Popular Front, a broad left coalition. Yet President Emmanuel Macron’s party, Ensemble (Together), has secured second place in many areas, prompting both blocs to back the withdrawal of third-place candidates to slow the far right’s advance.
The first-round results do not show a clear, overwhelming majority for any bloc and leave France’s political landscape exposed to three potential scenarios.
Majority relative
Forecasts from the first round place Le Pen’s party, whose prime ministerial candidate is Jordan Bardella, in a range of roughly 230 to 280 seats, well short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. If no bloc crosses that threshold, Macron’s bid for more stable governance would not automatically grant him a workable majority, and he would have to navigate coalition possibilities headed into the second round.
Until now Macron had 245 deputies and depended on agreements with other groups, especially on the right, while facing a constant threat of a motion of censure. The strength of a potential relative majority will be a key determinant of whether Bardella can form a government, given the challenge of assembling allies.
So far Macron’s camp kept a wall between itself and the far-right, limiting talks to other conservative forces. A second-round victory by the New Popular Front without a solid majority would intensify polarization and complicate governance.
Cohabitation
Should the far right win with an absolute majority, Macron would face a situation known as cohabitation, requiring a prime minister from a different political bloc for the duration until the next presidential election in 2027. Although the French constitution does not spell out this arrangement in detail, the president would be compelled to appoint a prime minister from the majoritarian bloc, constraining his maneuvering room.
The same outcome would occur if the left manages to secure an absolute majority, though the New Popular Front has yet to resolve the thorny question of who should be its prime minister candidate, with Mélenchon still casting a shadow over that decision. Other leading left members, including the Socialist Party and the Greens, have proposed selecting the candidate through a vote among the front’s deputies.
Beyond exclusive prerogatives like the power to submit a bill to a referendum or to act as guardian of the institutions, the president holds authority over foreign affairs and defense, but these competences are shared with the government, which effectively controls the budget and the money flows that determine what gets done.
Blocking
If the ruling bloc fails to reach a clear majority and the second and third blocs cannot reach a combined 289 seats, France could face an unprecedented political deadlock. In such a case, Macron might appoint a technocratic, consensus-driven prime minister to push through urgent laws. This paralysis could last at least a year, since the president cannot call new legislative elections within 365 days.
The coming days will decide which road France takes. Political brokers will look for combinations that can deliver governance, while voters weigh the tradeoffs between stability and the policy directions each bloc represents.
Subsequent updates will reflect the evolving arithmetic as results from the second round are finalized and the new balance of power becomes clear.