Nearly 49 million French voters were called to the polls this Sunday as legislative elections edge toward a second round slated for 19 June. A clear setback for President Emmanuel Macron would loom if his camp cannot restore an absolute majority in the National Assembly, potentially reshaping the balance of power in Paris.
Macron’s electoral timetable places his reappointment just two months after the presidential contest, offering a window for him to remain at the Élysée for another five years. His aim is to fend off Marine Le Pen, who in the last cycle helped push the far right to exceed 40 percent of the vote. The electoral landscape now features a broad, united opposition front built around Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s New Popular Ecologist and Social Union, known as Nupes, which seeks to become the principal counterweight to Macron and to chip away at his parliamentary majority, a development that could push Macron toward a power-sharing arrangement or coalition governance.
Under this scenario, Macron and his centrists might have to collaborate with other parties to push through policy plans, either by forming a formal coalition or by relying on cross-party majorities for individual votes. A coalition could entail cabinet shares with rival groups, reflecting a broader commitment to governing rather than a single party rule.
Historically, three other cohabitations have occurred in France’s Fifth Republic, the most recent spanning 1997 to 2002. The constitutional shift from seven to five-year presidential terms makes a repeat more challenging, adding a layer of complexity to any potential power-sharing. With the legislative elections and the presidential term cycle converging just weeks apart, the overall political trajectory is expected to remain stable, even as opposition parties try to assemble a unified front against Macron on both the left and the right.
Mélenchon has succeeded in rallying the left, and his strategy centers on presenting a broad anti-Macron coalition that includes not only the far left but also some center-right figures like the Republicans, as well as Le Pen’s camp. The aim is to present a credible challenge to Macron by pooling left, possibly patriotic, and some reformist forces.
Election campaign
The campaign has seen a fierce contest between the presidential majority and Nupes, with the government under pressure from critics. Olivier Véran, a former Health Minister and now the liaison with Parliament, accused France Insoumise of promoting a program that neglects the country’s current crises—from the yellow vests movement and the pandemic to the ongoing war in Ukraine. In remarks delivered near the campaign’s end, Véran urged keeping the country stable and warned against a potential institutional crisis arising from excessive political power. He also underscored that Mélenchon has not defined himself as the center-left, expressing hope for a majority while warning that coexistence with a dominant party is not a healthy political arrangement.
Mélenchon’s rhetoric this week drew further controversy when he criticized the police, referring to a unit as a “grumpy group” defending officers who were involved in a fatal shooting. The comments drew sharp rebukes from Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who called them ugly and shocking and accused Mélenchon of lacking republican principles. Christophe Castaner, the LREM spokesperson in Parliament, accused the left of wanting to ban everything and argued that the reform agenda risked adopting Soviet-like limits on behavior and choice.
In response to the opposition attacks, Macron pledged to empower ordinary citizens, especially in provincial towns, and warned of a momentous period in French history that could bring about significant change after years of political turbulence. He framed the election as a chance for a new social compact that would reflect the country’s evolving needs.
Macron sees his support at stake
Recent polling shows waning support for Macron and his party, with gains for leftist coalitions led by Mélenchon. A Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI suggested Macron’s alliance might secure roughly 250 to 290 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, a dip from earlier projections. Projections for Nupes place them between 195 and 230 seats, signaling a notable increase in support compared with prior estimates. To command an absolute majority, Macron would need at least 289 seats.
Other surveys, including Ipsos-Sopra, forecast up to 200 seats for the left, with Le Pen’s National Rally possibly securing 15 to 45 seats, and Macron’s coalition remaining the favorite ahead of Nupes. The voting dynamics show many deputies preferring to seek reelection in their constituencies, a trend supported by Le Figaro data indicating that about 440 deputies sought re-election.
Low attendance
Voter abstention could become a decisive factor in this weekend’s vote, with forecasts suggesting turnout might climb beyond the record 51.3 percent set during the prior presidential election. Analysts caution that French society appears disengaged and critical of politics, a sentiment that undermined Macron’s early promise of deep reform in 2017. Confidence in the head of state and his coalition has diminished as voters view the government as underperforming, yet there is concern that Nupes might not deliver where the government has achieved some success.
Current projections indicate abstention could reach around 52 percent, a turnout level with major implications for French politics and for the future shape of the Parliament, including the fate of Macron and his allies as they navigate a potentially more fragmented legislature.
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