The French left enters January with a focus on its internal tensions as a defining backdrop. The month will see discussions in France about retirement reform, with the government led by Emmanuel Macron planning to present on January 10 the core changes to the system. The proposal would raise the retirement age from 62 with 43 years of contributions to 64 or 65. Unions have already voiced strong opposition and are organizing demonstrations and strikes in the coming weeks.
There is little doubt that this sets up a favorable political stage for the government, even as the unitary left coalition known as NUPES presses the opposition against the Macronist administration. After a fall season marked by political turbulence, the focus shifts from debates about identity politics to a broader social struggle, a moment that could benefit Marine Le Pen’s far-right allies if progressive forces fracture or lose cohesion amid internal tensions.
Meanwhile, the Socialist Party is deep in preparations for its own internal gathering, the National Congress, scheduled for the final weekend of January. Discussions will revolve around whether to preserve or modify the existing electoral and parliamentary alliance with other left groups such as Disobedient France, the Greens, and the Communists, a question of strategic importance for future elections.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s rebels — presently the leading edge of the dissident left in the last presidential race — are navigating a turbulent period themselves. They captured roughly 22 percent of the vote, while several rival progressive candidates did not surpass 5 percent. The allies of Podemos in France, including the former number two Adrien Quatennens, faced a four-month prison sentence in December for a domestic incident. Criticism of the ecosocialist current has grown in recent weeks, with commentators noting perceived gaps in internal democracy.
Transcendent Congress at PS
There is a warning that withdrawal could be a risk for both sides, according to PS general secretary Olivier Faure in an interview published in a progressive daily. The current socialist leadership is expected to advocate preserving NUPES at the Marseille congress, especially with the 2027 presidential election in view and the memory of past rounds where the party failed to reach the second round in 2002, 2017, and 2022.
Faure will nonetheless oversee a largely procedural reshuffling of the party, with two opposition lists in play — one supported by Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo. Representatives from these factions are notably more guarded about the current alliance with other left-wing parties, a coalition that has existed for a quarter of a century and remains fragile.
Created after the presidential election in May, NUPES helped left-wing parties triple their seats and secure a solid parliamentary bloc. The alliance has emerged as the main opposition to Macronism in the National Assembly, with 151 deputies reported by analysts. The consensus among observers is that while the coalition feels stable in Parliament, its durability beyond the National Assembly is uncertain. Fabien Escalona, a political analyst for a digital media outlet, notes that the question now is whether the alliance can evolve into something more durable beyond parliamentary shelves.
Will They Repeat the Coalition for Europeans?
Across the recent votes, left-wing MPs have shown alignment on many issues, yet it remains unclear whether the coalition will endure into the European elections. After December’s leadership change, the Greens announced they would run separately at the European level in 2024, signaling a potential shift in the broader left map. The leadership of the French Communist Party, contingent on its spring congress, has signaled it may follow suit.
In European elections, the electoral system assigns seats in proportion to each party’s share of votes, which would favor reiterating a united front only if the left parties can coordinate effectively. Those in favor of continuing NUPES, including some insurgent factions and portions of the Socialist Party, worry that a break in 2024 could foreshadow the collapse of the coalition. The Greens have not ruled out reconciling the alliance for 2027 but want their party to assert more influence. As one notable Green leader explains, each member should maintain autonomy within the broader project.
Observers note that the future of Mélenchon looms large, alongside the question of who might succeed him. Escalona remarks that the veteran leader, who captured significant support in prior elections, remains a central figure; however, at 75 in 2027, the possibility of not seeking the presidency is part of ongoing discussions about succession. The Socialist camp and other left parties see potential room to gain ground depending on the direction chosen by Mélenchon’s potential successors, and the tactical choices of the broader left will shape the coming years.