The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen heads into the first round of France’s presidential election with high morale. Her main rival, extremist polemicist Eric Zemmour, has seen his campaign falter in recent weeks, with polls showing him in a solid second place at times before potentially facing President Emmanuel Macron in a runoff. In Perpignan on Sunday, Le Pen drew thousands to a rally on the eve of the vote, underscoring the momentum her campaign claims to have built.
In Perpignan, Le Pen reiterated the core lines of her bid: restoring purchasing power, reviving France’s once-strong national confidence, addressing immigration, and countering what her team portrays as a drift under Macron’s administration, including the McKinsey controversy that the president has faced in court. The message left no doubt about her stance toward Zemmour, who she views as a rival to her path to the presidency.
Le Pen cast herself as the candidate who can bring back stability and a sense of national joie de vivre, promising to restore order and the authority of the state. “It is the French who must decide who is worthy of being French and who can share in the national community. Being French is not simply an administrative condition, it is an honor,” she declared in the rally as supporters chanted and waved banners.
She urged voters to participate on Sunday, arguing that citizen turnout will determine the strength of the outcome. “If the people vote, the people win. Let’s take back control,” she proclaimed, addressing the crowd for several minutes to push back against the specter of abstention. Supporters shouted back with the refrain, “We will win.”
Believing in victory
“It matters to be here today, this is the last rally before the first round,” Le Pen told El Periódico de Catalunya, a newspaper within the same media group, before the event began. The rally stretched into a region where RN has influence, with Corrèze nearby and Perpignan a long-standing stronghold. A nearby observer noted Le Pen’s confidence and a perceived absence of serious rivals. “Marine Le Pen has campaigned clearly on issues that matter to citizens, while Macron has not,” he said as a band began singing La Marseillaise.
A local resident, a 65-year-old Perpinyà woman who preferred not to be named, described Le Pen’s vision: a France that must change for the better. “We are tired of the Macron era,” she said, as a mother and daughter who traveled from Montpellier to participate spoke of an electorate drawn to Le Pen’s message. They contrasted it with a government more distant from everyday concerns, a sentiment echoed by others who see the Hollande-era left and centrists as less aligned with current needs.
Nicolas Caudeville, a Perpignan-based journalist and blogger, echoed a sense of despair about the public beyond the present moment, reflecting on a cautious public mood as the race narrows toward the runoff.
Perpignan, a city long associated with the National Rally, has been a focal point for the party’s strategy after its leadership shift more than a decade ago under Louis Aliot. Le Pen’s campaign pivoted to a broader electorate, stressing practical issues rather than overt confrontation. Aliot warned that abstaining against Macron could punish the incumbents in a potential second round, a concern echoed by analysts watching turnout trends in recent elections. Historically, abstention has varied, with higher rates in the second rounds of past elections.
Observers note that Le Pen’s campaign is pursuing a pragmatic path, focusing on economic concerns rather than the most controversial topics such as security, immigration, and Islam. The campaign highlights the impact of inflation and energy prices, touched off by the war in Ukraine, as catalysts for voter concern. National statistics show rising consumer prices, underscoring the pressure on households and the appeal of Le Pen’s pledge to prioritize purchasing power.
Scholars describe Le Pen’s approach as a deliberate broadening of her stance to appeal to a wider audience. They point to a campaign that emphasizes concerns that resonate across social groups, while occasionally softening tones on previously controversial positions. This broader strategy is viewed as a move to position Le Pen as a centrist-leaning alternative capable of bringing together a larger share of the electorate, which could influence the runoff dynamics.
The tough test of the second round
The path to the second round is considered pivotal, and polls suggest a close contest. Yet securing victory in the final vote on April 24 appears challenging, as Macron’s name remains prominent in public discourse and on the airwaves. A former prime minister remarked that Macron could still win, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of the election landscape.
Analysts caution that in a second-round scenario, many left-leaning voters might abstain, choosing to stay home rather than cast ballots for either candidate. One expert described the potential choice as a stark dilemma for those voters, who could face a stark choice between what they view as two undesirable options. Others note that uncertainty amid the Ukraine conflict and ongoing economic concerns could influence how centrists and broader constituencies align in a runoff.
In this context, Macron’s campaign is framed as a unifying effort capable of appealing to a wider spectrum of voters, should the race reach a second round. While some analysts acknowledge the possibility of a Le Pen-Macron showdown, they also stress the importance of turnout and the broader political climate in shaping the final result. The evolving dynamics of the campaign reflect a broader question about how voters weigh economic issues against social and national identity concerns as the election moves toward its conclusion.
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