Around eight o’clock, the first results from the initial round of these snap legislative elections appeared on the screens in the Wagram Room in Paris, where more than 300 accredited journalists were gathered. A collective, sighing moment with no surprises. “There it is, what we expected”, one of the reporters remarked.
As polls had forecast, the far right led after the first round, though it did not secure an absolute majority. As soon as the numbers were released, Jordan Bardella spoke to the press: “The election is clear now, the presidential side largely discredited, and the left as the only real opponent.” He pointed to the left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the main challenge and described the other side as “the alliance of the worst, the new Popular Front behind Mélenchon, which will push the country toward disorder, insurrection, and economic ruin. On the other hand, the National Union is led by Marine Le Pen, with Eric Ciotti and our allies.”
While he spoke, thousands gathered in Paris’s Place de la République chanting “they shall not pass” to protest the victory of the far right. Participation was historic, with more than 12 million French voters backing National Rally candidates, who led 297 list organizations. The left urged building a stronger, more cohesive Popular Front to block the far right.
It was a hangover Monday after the vote, with many questions on the table and little time to react. Early in the morning, the French president and the entire government leadership met at the Élysée Palace to review the results and plot a new course. The same conversations were taking place at Le Pen’s villa and within the New Popular Front’s stronghold. Would there be a new cordon sanitaire, a ni-ni effect, or new alliances?
“The cordon sanitaire is already badly damaged in 2022, and this time it may not be able to rebound”, said Arsenio Cuenca, a political analyst quoted by El Periódico (via Prensa Ibérica).
“A dishonorable alliance”, declared Bardella to TF1 on Monday. During the campaign, Macron had accused the France Unbowed party of harboring immigration rhetoric, but now the far right’s ascent appears to have made the president more cautious. “Without clear Macronist slogans, many votes will be lost and there will be stiff competition for certain constituencies that would not exist in a different context”, argued Cuenca.
Analysts worry that the triangulations after the first round could produce a ni-ni effect, with two likely scenarios for France. The most feared is that Macron’s supporters avoid backing the left coalition, which includes the controversial leader of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and instead vote National Rally. The other scenario centers on abstention—voters not choosing the far right or the left.
Many observers describe it as the death knell of Macronism, with the Prime Minister openly critiquing the message sent by the French public: “We have heard the French. We must work differently”, he stated on public television.
Far-right poised to advance
As in the first round, polls and experts continue to forecast a far-right victory in the second round, with the question of how broad that lead might be fueling hours of debate. Will Marine Le Pen secure a parliamentary majority? Sources close to the Élysée suggest the president has contemplated dissolving the National Assembly again to avoid cohabitation, though such a move would not be feasible before next year under the constitution.
Two other, less likely options are being floated: the president could resign, though he has repeatedly insisted he will not, or in a crisis situation invoke Article 16 of the French constitution, which allows extraordinary measures when Republican institutions are gravely threatened and public powers cannot function. Both possibilities are considered highly unlikely.
Meanwhile, the left works to slow the advance of the far right, while Macronism appears to have found a strategic response: to retreat where it is not wanted.