The government of Argentina faced a rain of votes from the far right as Milei’s alliance surged in the Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primary Elections (PASO). La Libertad Avanza captured about 30 percent, a result that historically signals the likely outcome of the presidential race, yet this victory came with a caveat: the Avanza movement relies not on a formal party structure but on media visibility and social networks. Two months later, the Central Bank devalued the peso by 18.3 percent, highlighting a currency that has faced ongoing volatility. The sharp dollar move, from around 600 pesos to roughly 690 pesos per unit, reflected market anxiety and fed Milei’s momentum heading into the October 22 vote. Analysts noted that each U.S. dollar uptick could nudge Milei’s chances higher, while acting as a reminder to rival candidates like Massa to convert perceived setbacks into electoral gains.
Massa remains entrenched as the official candidate of an unpopular government—he also serves as Interior Minister—yet the electoral heat of PASO exposed the economic fragility that has weighed on the ruling coalition since August 2019. Former President Mauricio Macri’s UNABLE performance to stem currency depreciation left him publicly attributing the depreciation to market fear of a policy shift that would alter expectations. In the current moment, such arguments appear less convincing, and if the IMF negotiations pressured by the new realities feature sharper adjustments and higher rates, the economy would likely bear a heavier drag on growth.
As results came in, Milei emerged as a defining voice for the moment, positioning himself as a transformative force while Bullrich represented the traditional right. The gap between Milei and Bullrich was narrow, with Massa trailing by a couple of points in the early distribution of votes. The overall split remained roughly two-thirds for Milei versus the rest, underscoring a volatile electorate.
global phenomenon
The distinctive hairstyle and flamboyant rhetoric of the anarcho-capitalist candidate are more than cosmetic details; they mirror a broader global trend. Milei’s arc in Argentina resembles figures like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, whose styles resonate with urban and rural voters alike. The movement has echoes in other Latin American countries, raising questions about how far such currents might spread. Analysts warning against simplistic comparisons note that the call for freedom and a purge of perceived corruption and mediocrity has a transnational appeal, even as each country faces its own economic realities.
Notably, international observers within Spain and beyond acknowledged Milei’s surge as a signal of rising frustration with established parties. The sentiment of candidate support from regional allies underscored how regional dynamics can invigorate political movements far beyond national borders.
Commentators highlighted a shared skepticism toward mainstream parties, while some emphasized that what appears to be a moment of political reconfiguration could translate into sustained governance challenges if Milei wins and implements his agenda. The discussion around the right’s appeal also touched on how traditional conservative voters, uncertain about future policy directions, might reassess alliances in the context of a rapidly shifting electoral landscape.
Reasons to win
Milei’s victory traced to a blend of accumulated discontent and voters seeking a break from established options. The pause in public support for the governing coalition, coupled with a desire for change, helped lift Milei’s standing. The shift reflects a broader pattern in which turnout and mood swings shape outcomes, making the PASO result a potent predictor, but not a guarantee, of the November vote.
The race for the presidency also posed a dilemma for Bullrich, who heads a traditional conservative bloc that has seen some of its support migrate. The Together for Change coalition faced a decline in numbers since 2021, underscoring the political realignment at play. Milei’s momentum appears to have split support from the more traditional factions, complicating potential cross-party collaboration. Massa’s team suggested room to maneuver within the evolving landscape and to engage in discussions on economic policy and social priorities as the campaign moves forward.
For observers like Martín Rodríguez, neither Massa nor Bullrich can be counted out, though both would face a different political climate should Milei consolidate power. Rodríguez noted that Milei’s rhetoric has mobilized a segment of workers who feel unprotected by existing governance, including those who hold formal jobs yet see living standards eroding. The alliance’s message speaks to a broader demand for a new social compact and a redefinition of economic policy.
an impractical program
As the elections approach, negotiations with the IMF continue to loom. Some analysts argue that Milei’s plans—favoring reduced social spending, subsidy cuts, and a strong peso—could face stiff headwinds if implemented in full. Milei has floated ideas such as strengthening a dollarized framework and leveraging state resources to back currency stability, a proposal that would unfold rapidly should his government come to pass. Critics warn about potential social disruption and the long-term impact on public investment.
The absence of major figures in certain debates highlighted a shifting political landscape. Yet observers acknowledge that Milei’s proposals, though controversial, are shaping the policy conversation. While some parties remain skeptical, supporters argue that bold reforms could create a foundation for renewed growth, even as others voice concerns about the path required to reach that goal.