Argentina will announce this Sunday which candidate they prefer to lead the government, with the new administration set to begin on December 10. This is the curious role PASO plays. It is a concurrent and mandatory open primary. More than a party selection mechanism, the results act as a highly approximate gauge of parties’ voting intentions. The October 22 elections will shape a landscape where Peronism, once in power, faces a disadvantage this time. The big contender is Sergio Massa, the current economy minister of a country grappling with triple-digit inflation and an unprecedented, grinding poverty rate near forty percent. He is paired with Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who had supported Alberto Fernandez for the 2019 presidential bid under a banner of renewal. They faced a defeat to Mauricio Macri, and later, the pandemic era debt and missteps widened the gap in four years. Critics argue the Fernandez family did not resolve internal rifts, barely smoothing over grievances to back Massa.
In his bid, Massa has tapped Horacio Rodríguez Larreta as a potential mayoral ally in Buenos Aires and has found less resonance with Patricia Bullrich and the far right candidate Javier Milei. Supporters expect that this bloc could become a reservoir of collective frustration.
“I invite you to vote on Sunday. We are not a failed society, and we are not a goddamn country,” Massa urged, aiming to curb abstention that could undermine the ruling party at the last moment. He suggested that the debate owes more to broader economic and social issues than to a single political frame. The background issue of salary and social policy shows that the unpopular Fernández leadership has the political courage many say it lacks.
previous voltages
“We now face a moment to clearly distinguish realities, including security policy, which should not be a battlefield for political campaigns,” Massa said. There was violence the night before PASO. In the poorest neighborhoods of Buenos Aires, an 11-year-old girl was killed after answering her phone on the way to school and a doctor was at her home. Police in the capital pressured train users, using rubber bullets and sticks to control crowds. Human rights groups blamed the government, alongside the death of a man at a demonstration they had urged not to vote on Sunday. A rising dollar and its effect on essential goods added another layer of tension to the hours leading up to the primaries. Rumors of a PASO suspension spread amid the unrest.
map on the right
“Whatever the talk, there will be elections on Sunday,” Bullrich said, echoing a River Plate sentiment and echoing Isabel Diaz Ayuso in Spain. The rivalry with Rodríguez Larreta is not without pitfalls. A half century of Peronist guerrilla memories binds Larreta and Bullrich, who share an anti-Peronist stance and aim to implement a conservative program from day one of the new administration. Heavy-handed policing in the city of Buenos Aires and in Jujuy Province, where protests over lithium privatization erupted, are viewed as early signs of what may lie ahead. Polls aside, analysts believe one of these two candidates may lead the country, depending on turnout and late endorsements.
Yet polls are not exact science, especially in a land where ambiguity has long shaped politics. Milei has emerged as a serious challenger in this STEP. The economist and La Libertad Avanza candidate, who gained attention after a televised debate, is seen as far more audacious than Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta. His platform calls for privatizing large sectors, eliminating severance pay, raising rates, lowering taxes, and letting market forces govern daily life, including proposals to permit private trade in human organs.
Milei’s rise has carried a force that extends beyond the election itself. The vice-presidential candidate Victoria Villarruel has faced backlash for remarks about the last military dictatorship from 1976 to 1983. Supporters of La Libertad Avanza sometimes reject long-standing social consensus about past events. Recently, commemorative plaques honoring missing students were vandalized with graffiti labeling them as terrorists. Ramiro Marra, a mayoral candidate from the same bloc, supports ending sex education in schools and calls for parents to opt their children into alternative adult content. A Friday election day ban did not deter Milei from gaining backing, including a message from the former president Jair Bolsonaro, who appeared in a video offer of support. Bolsonaro stated, in effect, that shared values around family, private property, free markets, freedom of expression, and the right to self-defense align with Milei’s team.
careful markets
Markets will watch the ballot results closely. Some analysts argue that a strong showing by Massa would be viewed unfavorably by some financial circles. Massa faced a delicate balancing act to maintain stability during PASO. Doha lent Argentina 775 million dollars and a related debt relief was arranged. Massa plans to reimburse this loan in November when the IMF schedules a negotiated payment of 7.5 billion dollars. If Massa meets a setback this Sunday, his future as minister could be jeopardized, and the country could face a difficult transition by October.